US bystander in battery raw materials https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/benchmarks-minerals-simon-moores-warns-senate-us-a-bystander-in-battery-raw-materials/
“We are in the midst of a global battery arms race, in which so far the US is a bystander. The advent of electric vehicles and energy storage has sparked a wave of battery megafactories that are being built around the world.”
“Since my last testimony only 14 months ago we have gone from 17 lithium ion battery megafactories to 70. In gigawatt hour-terms we have gone from 289 GWh to 1,549 GWh, that’s the equivalent of 22 million pure electric vehicles worth of battery capacity in the pipeline.”
“The scale and speed of this growth is unprecedented and it will have a profound impact on the raw materials that fuel these battery plants. The scale of investment will also drive the cost of lithium ion battery production down below $100 kWh this year. This adds extra impetus to this mega-trend of battery megafactories and the impact on the demand for critical battery raw materials of lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, has been unprecedented.”
“For example, in the next decade the demand for lithium [used in the battery industry] is set to go up 9-times, cobalt is set to go up 6-times, nickel is set to go up 5 times, and graphite anode is set to go up 9 times.”
“The question is how much of this mineral to EV battery supply chain does the US control? The way I view the battery supply chain is in three main elements: you’ve got the mine where the minerals come from, you’ve got the chemical refining aspect which is absolutely key to using those chemicals or minerals in the batteries, and you’ve got the battery plants.”
“For stage one, how much of that mined supply does the US control? For nickel it’s zero, for cobalt it’s zero, for graphite it’s zero, and for lithium it’s one percent.
“For the chemical stage, where the know how comes in for using these minerals in batteries, how much capacity does the US control? Nickel it’s zero percent, cobalt it’s zero percent, graphite it’s zero percent, and for lithium it’s 7%.”
“The battery capacity stage, where they make the actual batteries, the consuming plants: in 2018 the US had 9%, that was mainly from the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada and by 2028 we’re only forecasting 10%. We’re forecasting a relative flatline as this industry grows.”
“Incidentally, China is on track to have 65% of battery capacity by 2028. It already has 51% of lithium chemical capacity, 80% of cobalt chemical capacity, 100% per cent of graphite anode capacity and a third of nickel chemical capacity.”