Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

reason why I think this is Insider trading

[bigguy56]

Note that Insider Trading means trading based on insider knowledge, not trading by the insiders themselves... it happens prior to almost any significant news event. In the case of KAT, there was an upswing to .47 some time back, immediately preceding the last Earnings release. I guessed that it would return back to the low .40's, which it did. My guess was that that was speculation on the earnings report. Well, this recent downturn scares me, because there is no reason behind it. In the absence of a reason, it must be something else, like insider trading. Or it is part of an overall downward trend. Both are bad. Frankly, it is hard to say what the "bottom" is for this stock, given the lack of relevant numbers for comparison. No PE, no earnings, and looking at the pile of debt and calculating when cash-flow positive can be reached and anything can be paid down is disheartening. Like I posted previously, the current capital investments might just be projects that must be finished because they are beyond halting. Having worked on many projects like this, I know what can happen. These projects are based on a Business Case that assumes a certain price level for the commodity. I would say those assumptions are not hogwash. But the projects have to be completed because of the sunk cost. I worked at a large international mining company on such projects in 2011. I remember the stock was $33 at the time. It went down to $2 or $3 as commodity prices tanked. Now it is back up to around $10 last time I looked. I worked on several projects worth over 1 Billion, all justified on a price level expectation. I worked on Mount Milligan as well... and the lower Churchill project (a Hydro project)... all boondoggles. That is the scenario I envision now for KAT. A far cry from expectations just 1 year ago... Still hoping for the best, not completely out.