RE:RE:RE:Copper supply shortfall 155kt first 4 months of 2019LME stock flows remain busy, and copper stocks totaled 318,675 tonnes on Thursday, down slightly from 337,675 tonnes on August 30 amid stronger outflows. In addition, the proportion of stocks booked for removal has increased to 34.2%, from 9.3% on August 20, following a strong rise in cancelations, which points toward a pick-up in seasonal demand. Meanwhile, the LME cash/three-month spread was most recently in a contango of $23.75 per tonne.
Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks totaled 143,876 tonnes on August 30, down by 12,697 tonnes week on week.
In the physical market, a three-year low in Shanghai-bonded stocks boosted the in-warehouse Shanghai copper cathode premium in the week to Tuesday, while in Europe, sources reported an uptick in spot trading of copper cathodes amid ample supply.
Factors such as urbanization, decarbonization and the use of electric vehicles will continue to support copper consumption across the medium-to-longer term. The latest figures showed new energy vehicle sales totaled 619,000 vehicles in January-July, up by 51% year on year.
In addition, investment in China's copper intensive electricity grid is expected to intensify in the second half of 2019. China's State Grid Corp's spending has dropped by 19% year on year across the first half of 2019, compared with projections that investment in the nation's electricity grid would increase by 5% this year.
Global mine production declined by around 1% in the first five months of 2019, according to figures from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), with producers struggling with higher disruption rates.