Some guesses
From my SA KvN KAT Blog:
Very risky and very speculative hold from here in my opinion... but we need those 36 months for the macro to turn around: Cu & Co prices, Trump, Tariffs, EV story and the optimization of our Mining assets plus the new Sulphuric Acid plant and the new Power Plant coming on stream etc. which, will, all combined, finally pull our C1 Total Op Cost nicely down under $1.80/lb...
And no, none of this is going to happen overnight.
But if all those elements do fall into place, we may very quickly have a 5 x bagger on our hands pre-consolidated. Just sad it will be from 10c/share not $1.00
There are no alternate redemptions from this mess. Sell. Take a massive loss. Or wait tight for the end game.
There will be no OSC "investigations" as there is no viable argument that can be sustained that GLEN hasn't been well within their rights (that have also been well publicised in all the KAT disclosures for years now) to seek a KAT sponsored RO to clear KAT debt owed to GLEN.
What everyone fails to realize is that KAT was effectively headed for dissolution. Now. Not in 2021 when loans were due.
And as many may know, in a place like the DRC, if KAT went bankrupt, it would spell a Total Loss. A disaster. All our assets would be taken back by the State. There would be no formal restructuring and no protections from creditors etc. No. The only winners would be Gecamines and Kinshasa (and China).
Everyone else would be out. Including Glencore. So GLEN weren't going to let that happen, were they?
Also the lender's rights to push for repayment have been there and as public knowledge since the beginning. Minority shareholders just weren't looking properly. And then the macro fu**ed us over.
Lastly, note, the above timeline is all "guesswork". But what isn't are the anticipated production metrics and the much, much better gearing KAT will have after these punitive loans are settled and after that 36 month programme gets completed. We also need that time for the macro to turn as I have indicated and IMO.
Will GLEN leave us alone to get the job done and not take over the ~0.6% it doesn't already own? Yes, I believe so.
For a bit anyway. I have stated I think the time they may close down the KAT office and end the listing and buy us out will be when Glassenberg "resigns" and GLEN does a big US DoJ settlement. I see all of these elements as tightly linked. But a settlement may well be a year or two away.
We can already read the tea leaves about Glassenberg's tenuous position as he has publicized his desire to find a new CEO to come after him.
I challenge that that's not an entirely honest search nor his idea alone and that he will be pushed out as part of a DoJ settlement. That is my guess.
And were that to be the case, and from the perspective of the GLEN Board of Directors, the best, most optimal, most logical time to clean up all this mess would be on the event of that settlement...
It's shi**y for sure but that's my read...
Good luck to all whichever way your pecker points.
These are my views only. Thanks for reading.