Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

Lithium Ion Battery, EV, Now and Future

[Sogosohubidu201]

I don't know that anyone here had a chance to listern to Simon Moores testimony at US Senate yesterday.

Since his last testimony only 14 months ago we have gone from 17 to 70 lithium ion battery megafactories in the pipeline or from 289 GWh to 1549 GWh battery capacity in the pipeline. 1549 GWh battery will be sufficient to power 22 millions EV. We also reach the price point for lithium ion battery of $100 USD/kWh this year, which is believed by the industry for the same total cost ownership of EV as the ICE cars.

China is a bit behind in terms of battery cost. Major Chinese battery producers predict to reach $100 USD/kWh next year.

In order to adsorb the surplus of cobalt in the market place from KAT, ERG and others in the next 2-3 years, we will need 8 millions EV sale per year if we ignore the increase in cobalt use in energy storage (low basis, but very fast growth) and consumer electronics (large basis, but slow growth):

2018 - just over 2 million EV (reported)
2019 - 3 - 3.5 million EV
2020 - 5 million EV
2021 - 7 - 8 million EV
2022 - 10 million EV

Cobalt shortage appears from 2021.

[Lech1988]

Vast majority of reports sees the deficit or "cliff" in 2024/2025.  2021 is nonsense.  

[Sogosohubidu201]

Those reports underestimated the growth rate of EV.  

[InternalAudit68]

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[Sogosohubidu201]

Shortage and "cliff" are different, right?  I see severe cobalt shortage in 2023 ( I would not eve call it "cliff") when I think that we may see $100,000 per tonne of cobalt price. Last year, the industry was predicting that we would reach cost ownership parity for EV and ICE in 2026. Now they are predicting that we will be there im 2022, 4 years' earlier. The

[InternalAudit68]

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[InternalAudit68]

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[InternalAudit68]

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[Sogosohubidu201]

Solid state batteries may enter commercial production from 2025.  Solid state batteries still use cathods containing cobalt such as NCM, NCA and LCO mainly. Others also try to use LNMO and LFP containing no cobalt, but with much lower energy density. The changes are mainly electrolyte and membrane, and possibly anode to lithium metal to increase energy density. For example, Toyoto's solid

[InternalAudit68]

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[Sogosohubidu201]

Toyoto has more patents than anybody else in terms of solid state battery. If you are interested in its solid state batteries, here is the breakdown: Cathod: NCA, LCO and LNMO Anode: Lithium metal, graphite and LTO Solid electrolyte: sulphur polymer or sulphur containing solids Development state: demo already For further details, please read its 100+ technical patents

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[Sogosohubidu201]

KAT 40k tonnes of cobalt will almost be sufficient to power 6 millions EV. Without KAT 40k tonnes of cobalt, we will have cobalt shortage from this year. Cobalt price will rise from this year.