Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

What's next for KAT?

[stockhunter20001]

What are we waiting for? What's next?

[johnny54]

my opinion which doesnt mean much with my 2 stars;) 1) trade war resolution which then gives a brighter economic outlook out of china 2) this oversupply or lets say supply of cobalt being used up which is what i think Glencore and ERG are banking on with there cuts of production. 3) resumption of cobalt sales from katanga 4) rise is copper and cobalt price  5) continued noise around the rapid

[Sogosohubidu201]

In my view: $5 share price at the end of 2020 (next year) or in 2021, and $10+ share price in 2022-2023.  How many here have the patient to waite for 2-4 years to see those prices? No guarantee, but high probability, with very limited risk for lower price from the current level.

[Lech1988]

5-6 CAD seems reasonable but 10+ would need sustained record breaking Copper and Cobalt prices

[Gws0623]

I have the patience to wait, though I wouldn't call the risk "very limited".  In particular, the thing I still have some doubts about is KAT's balance sheet and short term liquidity.  It was a little bit alarming to read in the last financials about potential for a rights offering if KAT needs more money beyond the $500m that Glencore is ready to guaranty.  

[Lech1988]

They have received short term financing guaranteed by Glencore from South African banks.  I believe this is the $500m you are referring to.  The expected cash shortfall was calculated using a very conservative copper price around $5800 while current prices are closer to $6500.  This certainly does not eliminate the cash shortfall but does help reduce it.  If they had the cobalt

[Gws0623]

Yes, the numbers were done with conservative metal prices (cobalt even at $20,000/t?).  I think we would all feel relieved when the debt starts finally going the other way.  

[Cassius1977]

While there is no doubt that KAT has multi-bagger potential a 10+ SP puts the valuation at 20 billion +.   What, might I ask,  are your predictions for metal prices?  6 dollar copper and 60 dollar cobalt?

[Sogosohubidu201]

$8,000-$9,000 USD per tonne of copper and $80,000-$100,000 per tonne of cobalt in 2022-2023 for $10+ share price. I do see short term weakness in share price in the next 3 months, but feel very good toward the end of this year.

[Lech1988]

Fair enough but those are mega mega bullish assumptions, far higher than anywhere I have seen. 

[johnny54]

No kidding it’s stockhouse if anyone one here was even half right half the time we would all be millionaires. Why the recent move back to 50 cents is the real queation? Cobalt has been down the entire time 3even when we moved back up to .80 why the loss. Because lack of activity? Because no news has been released? Because nothing bad is going on atm in Congo lol? The real question is when do we

[patels96]

@johnney54 The sentiment is very poor, I wouldnt expect sentiment to recover until US-China spat is over and until 2H2019 when the Chinese stimulus kicks in. That being siad, we need to get the ion exchange system commissioned which they are planning for in 4Q2019 That being said, I've done numerous analysis on the surplus profit taxes that DRC announced as part of their mining code changes,

[johnny54]

sorry what do you mean by you have never seen considerable amount of cost synergies among active miners that you do in kat? also i realize we need to get the ion machine completed and under operation, but would Investors not see the huge oppurtunity here that we have a massive stock pile accumulating and the huge oppurtunity for a massive upswing in cobalt? im still wondering how this is such a

[Lech1988]

Wouldn't you be skeptical of KAT too given what has happened in the past 12 months?  Mining code changes, mining license revocation threats by the DRC, fines, cobalt export bans, collapsing cobalt price, etc etc.  It’s hardly surprising people have lost faith…

[patels96]

@johnny54, What I mean is that if you look at KAT's asset profile you will notice that all the mines (Kamoto UG, KOV Openpit, T-17, Katanga etc.) and its processing facilities (Kamoto concentrator, and Luilu) are all very close together and thus can save on costs associated with transportation. In addition, given higher ore grades at these mines the milling costs aka the majority of the cost

[johnny54]

@patels96 thanks for the explanation!! looking to majorly lower my avg where do you see the bottom and how low can you see this going in the next few months?

[patels96]

@johnny54, I see some short term pressure, until June. I personally, think we have hit the bottom, and waiting. This would be a great time to load up (got to have balls of steel). After June and into 2H2019, I do see upward momentum carried by the Chinese stimulus, as well as a potential interest rate cut by the feds. Right now KAT is very sensitive to company speicifc risk, rather then market

[JanineK22399HH]

'However, the problem is that most investors are waiting on the sidelines and watching until KAT starts posting profits and cash flows.' - per Patel no buyer, no seller, 3 month very low trading vol. confirms what you said - 

[Sogosohubidu201]

Cobalt price touched $90,000 USD per tonne early last year before EV revolution barely started.  We will see $100,000 per tonne of cobalt again.  We will see copper price to break the old high of $4.5 per pound (about $10,000 per tonne).  All these will happen before 2025. This is the event of 100 years.  After 3 years, this shall be so obvious to everyone......

[Lech1988]

I'm not saying you are wrong but I have not seen a single credible market source throw those kind of prices around.   https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1869102-ev-battery-industry-doubles-use-of-cobalt-nickel The entire EV indusry used only 16kt of Cobalt last year....  KAT's supply response is predicted to grow to an annual production rate of 38kt by 2021.  Ignoring all