LOY.V Buy from ValuEngine 0.05 EPS for the quarter, 0.08 EP V g l u ng i ne E
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Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc PO Box 399 Melbourne, FL 32902 support@ValuEngine.com (800)381-5576
The Leader in Stock Valuation and Forecasting
Valuengine - Toronto Quantitative Stock Report
LOYALIST GP LTD
Ticker: LOY (TSX)
May 20, 2015
CONTENTS
• Valuation Snapshot
• Forecast Target Prices -1, 3, 6, and 12 Month Time Horizons
• Historical Price and Recommendation Chart
• Business Summary
• Optimal Buy-Sell Levels
• Overall Rankings
• Alternate Valuation Figures -PEG and Comparables' PEG
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto) May 20, 2015
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 1
ValuEngine Recommendation
Close Price Target Price Volume Sell Hold Buy
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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0
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Price ()
.000
.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Volume (million)
©ValuEngine.com 2014
BUY
Most Favorable
Favorable
HOLD Neutral
SELL
Unfavorable
Most Unfavorable
CURRENCY N/A
Recommendation Factors
Value Rank
Overall Rank btm 1%
1-Yr Target Price 0.44 top 3%
Company Fundamentals
Sector Business Services
Industry BUSINESS SERVICE
Last Trade 0.40
Trade Date 05/19/15
Fair Value n/a
P/E Ratio 7.41
Last 1-Yr Return n/a
Market Cap(mil) 61.12
Trailing P/E 7.41
Forward P/E 4.94
Sharp Ratio 0.48
5-Yr Ann Return 33.58%
Volatility 70.68%
EPS Growth 50.00%
Annual Dividend n/a
Dividend Yield n/a
Beta -0.17
Valuation Analysis
LOY Today's Fair value: n/a, n/a
Forecast Analysis
Target Price Exp. Return
1-Month 0.40 1.03%
3-Month 0.41 2.87%
6-Month 0.42 5.64%
1-Year 0.44 12.42%
2-Year 0.41 3.71%
3-Year 0.40 2.05%
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VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION
ValuEngine has issued a BUY recommendation for LOYALIST GP LTD on May
20, 2015. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting
research, we feel that LOYALIST GP LTD has the probability to
OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company
exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E ratio, 5-year annualized return and risk.
RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW
ValuEngine's stock recommendations are based on the proprietary ValuEngine
one-year forecast return (1YFR) model output for each individual equity. A
stock is rated Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell based on the Forecast
One Year Return. The breakdown for each rating is as follows:
• Strong Buy: Better than +12% 1YFR
• Buy: Between +5% and +12% 1YFR
• Hold: Between -5% and +5% 1YFR
• Sell: Between -12% and -5% 1YFR
• Strong Sell: Worse than -12% 1YFR
There is an additional buffer for stock upgrades or stock downgrades to
eliminate stocks moving back and forth quickly between ratings. ValuEngine's
Strong Buy-rated stocks have an average annual return of 24% since 2001. For
more details on the ValuEngine One Year Forecast Target price and its
components, please go HERE.
FAIR MARKET VALUATION PRICE
Based on available data as of May 20, 2015, we believe that LOY should be
trading at $n/a. This makes LOY n/a. Fair Value indicates what we believe the
stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and
everything traded at its true worth. For LOY, we base this on actual earnings
per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of 0.05, and forecasted EPS for
the next four quarters of 0.08. There are an additional 10 firm specific and
interest rate related parameters, each playing a role in the valuation analysis.
For more details on ValuEngine's Fair Value Model, please go HERE.
FORECASTED TARGET PRICES
The predictive variables used in Valuengine's forecast target price models
include both proprietary and well-established forecasting variables derived from
credible financial research studies and publications. Our forecasting models
capture, among other things, several important tendencies that stock prices
consistently exhibit: Short-term price reversals, Intermediate-term momentum
continuation, and Long-term price reversals. We use a distinct forecasting
model for each time horizon and for every industry. We then apply the most
advanced statistical/econometric techniques to ensure that our stock return
forecasts are as reliable as possible. For more details on ValuEngine's
Forecasted Target Price Model, please go HERE.
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto)
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 2
Data Summary & Market Ratio Based Valuation
EVALUATION & RANKINGS
Value Rank
Valuation n/a n/a
12-Month Return n/a n/a
5-Yr Avg Ann Rtn 33.58% 96
Volatility 70.68% 19
EPS Growth 50.00% 77
Market Cap(mil) 0.06 30
Sharpe Ratio 0.48 75
P/S Ratio 4.47 22
M/B Ratio 63.01 2
P/E Ratio 7.41 98
EVALUATION & RANKINGS SUMMARY
Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten
predictive variables for each stock is the way they are
ranked against the 5500 plus stocks in our database. This is
sometimes confusing to newcomers to ValuEngine. Each of
these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1
to 100. Generally the higher the ranking, the more positive
the influence each measurement has on the overall
attractiveness of the stock. In other words a high rank is
always better. Let's take them one by one:
5-Year Average Annual Return 96: 4% of stocks have
higher average annual return
•
Volatility rank 19: 81% of stocks have less volatility •
EPS growth rank 77: 23% of stocks have greater
projected EPS growth
•
Size rank 30: 70% of companies have higher market
capitalization
•
Sharpe Ratio rank 75: 25% of stocks have a higher
Sharpe Ratio
•
Price/Sales rank 22: 78% of stocks have lower
price/sales ratios
•
Market/Book rank 2: 98% of stocks have lower
market/book value ratios
•
P/E rank 98: 2% of stocks have lower P/E ratios •
MARKET RATIO BASED VALUATION
Portfolio managers and professionals traditionally rely on
market ratios to gauge whether a stock is fair valued or
overvalued. On this page, we present such a valuation
based on one of three market ratios: PEG (price to trailing 4
quarter earnings ratio, divided by the consensus analyst
forecasted next year EPS growth), P/E ratio (price to forward
4 quarter earnings ratio), and P/S ratio (price to trailing 4
quarter sales). Among the three, PEG is the most
informative as it reflects both the price/earnings ratio and
expected future EPS growth, while P/E is better than P/S.
For each given stock, we apply the PEG to give a fair value
assessment if both its trailing 4 quarter EPS and forecasted
EPS growth rate are positive. If its forecasted EPS growth is
negative but its forward 4 quarter EPS is positive, we apply
the P/E to give a fair value for the stock as of today.
Otherwise, we resort to the P/S to assess its fair value.
To establish a valuation standard, we use both (i) the
average historical market ratio of the stock over the past 10
years (or however long there is data available for the stock),
and (ii) the average market ratio today of five comparable
stocks in the same sector and from companies of similar
size. These two alternative perspectives should give you a
good idea about where this stock's valuation stands today.
1. Valuation Based on LOY's Past P/S
Over the past 5 years, LOY's average P/S is n/a. LOY
earned 0.05 per share in its recent 4 quarters. The analyst
consensus estimate is 0.08 for its 4 quarter forward EPS.
LOY's current price sales ratio is 4.47. The following
assessment is based on multiplying the historical P/S with
recent 4 quarter sales per share for LOY.
Fair Value
Historical Average P/S n/a
P/S-Based Fair Value 0.00
2. Valuation Based on Comparables' P/S
LOY's comparables are BDI, CTY, CWL, KBL and SUM.
The current P/S average of these comparables is 2.88. LOY
earned 0.05 per share in its recent 4 quarters. The analyst
consensus estimate is 0.08 for its 4-quarter-forward EPS.
LOY's current price sales ratio is 4.47. The following
assessment is based on multiplying comparable stocks'
average P/S today with LOY's recent 4 quarter sales per
share .
Comparables' P/S
Comparables Current P/S
BDI 1.94
CTY 0.58
CWL 0.84
KBL 3.30
SUM 6.45
Fair Value
Comparable Stocks' Avg P/S 2.88
Comparable P/S-Based Fair Value 0.25
Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten predictive variables for each stock is the way they are ranked against
the 5,500 plus stocks in our database. Each of these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1 to 100. Generally
the higher the ranking, the more positive the influence each measurement has on the overall attractiveness of the stock. In
other words a high rank is always better. The below data points show how the rank for each data point for symbol LOY relates
to the overall industry and sector averages.
V g l u ng i ne E
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto)
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 3
ValuEngine Rankings
1-Year Forecast Rank
LOY 98
Industry 39
Sector 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine Forecast Rank reflects the relative future performance of a stock
for the next year. A higher forecast rank indicates stronger potential performance
over the next year. With a Forecast Rank of 98, Symbol LOY is significantly
higher than the industry's rank score of 39.
5-Yr Avg Ann Rtn Rank
LOY 96
Industry 56
Sector 57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine 5-Year Average Return Rank reflects a stock's average annual
return over the last 5 years, in comparison with the coverage universe. A higher
rank indicates better return performance over the past 5 years. With a rank of 96,
symbol LOY is significantly higher than the industry, which has a rank of 56.
Volatility Rank
LOY 19
Industry 38
Sector 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine Volatility Rank reflects the volatility associated with the stock. A
higher Volatility Rank indicates lower volatility performance. Symbol LOY has a
Volatility Rank of 19, which is slightly lower than the industry Rank of 38.
EPS Growth Rank
LOY 77
Industry 63
Sector 55
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine EPS Growth Rank indicates a stock's expected EPS growth rate.
A high rank indicates a high growth rate expectation. Symbol LOY has an EPS
Growth Rank of 77.This is slightly higher than the industry rank of 63.
Size Rank
LOY 30
Industry 45
Sector 54
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine Size Rank signifies the company's size in terms of market
capitalization. A higher rank denotes a larger market capitalization within
ValuEngine's stock universe. With a Size rank of 30, symbol LOY is slightly lower
than the industry, which has a rank of 45.
Sharpe Ratio Rank
LOY 75
Industry 52
Sector 56
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine Sharpe Ratio Rank measures the risk return tradeoff offered by a
stock. Sharpe ratio is the stock's average annual return (over the last five years)
divided by its annualized volatility over the same 5 years. With a rank of 75,
symbol LOY is moderately higher than the industry, which has a rank of 52.
P/E Rank
LOY 98
Industry 46
Sector 51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The ValuEngine P/E Rank signifies the relative standing of a company on its P/E
ratio, relative to the universe. Stocks in the top P/E percentile are each assigned
a rank of 1(highest P/E stocks) while those in the bottom P/E percentile are
assigned a rank of 100 (traditional value stocks). With a P/E rank of 98, symbol
LOY is significantly higher than the industry P/E rank of 46.
V g l u ng i ne E
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto)
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 4
Comparables & Business Description
Comparing symbol LOY* to its Peers
Symbol 1-Yr Forecast rank
LOY
98
WAN
40
CWL
n/a
PKT
n/a
CTY
92
5-Yr Avg Ann Rtn Rk
96
95
62
14
47
Volatility Rank
19
28
52
14
85
Symbol EPS Growth Rank
LOY
77
WAN
28
CWL
52
PKT
14
CTY
38
Size Rank:
30
22
21
10
40
Sharpe Ratio Rank
75
77
58
19
48
Symbol P/E Rank
LOY
98
WAN
52
CWL
58
PKT
19
CTY
88
OY - LOYALIST GP LTD
WAN - WANTED TECHNOLG
CWL - CALDWELL PTNRS
PKT - PARKIT ENTERPRS
CTY - CALIAN TECH LTD
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto)
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 5
VALUENGINE SERVICE DESCRIPTIONS
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ValuEngine's research combines the most advanced academic concepts with real world Wall Street practice. The result is
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ValuEngine's stock valuation employs a sophisticated, three-factor approach. Fundamental variables, such as a company's
trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the
30-year Treasury yield, are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. Together with eleven
additional variables, ValuEngine paints a detailed picture of a company's fair value, represented by the model price.
ValuEngine's stock forecasts examine, among other things, short-term price reversals, intermediate-term momentum continuation, and
long-term price reversals over six time horizons for every industry to
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V g l u ng i ne E
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LOYALIST GP LTD (LOY, Toronto)
Copyright © 1998 -2015 ValuEngine Inc 6
VALUENGINE'S METHODOLOGY
Engine Rating and Average Annual Return
(Jan 2002 - Apr 2015)
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