GREY:LGLTF - Post by User
Comment by
BlueHorseshoe13on Feb 15, 2016 3:16pm
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Post# 24559754
RE:RE:RE:Any material change to credit agreement besides extension ?
RE:RE:RE:Any material change to credit agreement besides extension ?I'd say the honest answer is that nobody cares. Not being cynical. Company has a sub $3M market cap, $9M in debt and a tough history. Management doesn't need to care about reporting to existing shareholders as they're pretty much guaranteed to cycle out if the company makes it, and if not then it'll be thrown to the courts.
It's probably safe to say that April 26 is an effective long stop for the company. The lenders get weekly updates from the FA, so they'll know well in advance as to whether this is a go. If they exit forebearance and life is good then the early excise provision will likely be triggered on the warrants and the proceeds will be used to pay down the debt further.
Here's the call from uncle Sal
- 60% likelihood: April 26 Exit, excise warrants, SP>0.12
- 10% likelihood: Extend forebearance by another quarter, SP=0.02
- 30% likelihood: April 26 fold the tent, SP=0
BTY: this highly sophisticated valuation model yeilds a two month price target of about seven and a half cents.