RE: RE: RE: Third quarter operations and planned f Okay, let's say they are at 39,000 boe/d on Oct 1st. Maybe they have an average decline rate of 35% per year.
Annually that would be 13,650, so over the next three months, we can guess 1/4 of that, leaving us at 35,588 boe/d. They mention that 1,500 boe or so is offling so let's say we can actually be at 37,000 boe/d.
Next, they say that 105 wells will be brought online in Q4 (forecast). If we give an average IP of 150 bbls/d then we add 15,750. For simplicity let's say they are brought on evenly over the next three months with a 40% decline rate. 5,250 bbls each month.
The table below shows an add of 14,700 + 37,500 = 52,200 bbls by year end.
| | 40%/12 = 3.33% per month | | |
| | | | | |
| | 3.33% | | | |
| | | | | |
| | bbls | Decline rate to Year End | Decline bbls | Residual Prod |
| Prod add | 5,250 | 10.00% | 525 | 4,725 |
| Prod add | 5,250 | 6.67% | 350 | 4,900 |
| Prod add | 5,250 | 3.33% | 175 | 5,075 |
| Total | 15,750 | | | 14,700 |