GREY:MAAFF - Post by User
Post by
stocktaon Sep 10, 2009 1:46pm
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Post# 16294131
MAA Valuation
MAA ValuationSomeone poke holes in this analysis of MAA valuation (back of envelope only)
Production 1.2M tonnes for 40 years at an average price of $500/year = 600,000,000 /year
Cost of Production = $150/tonne = $180,000,000/year
Fixed Costs = $200,000,000/year
Cash Flow B4 Depreciation = $220,000,000
Present Value of 40 year Cash flows at 6% = $3.3B
Up Front Capital Cost = $1.2B
Net Present Value of Project = $2.1B
Diluted # shares in future with Chinese equity financing = 700,000,000
Present Value Per Share = $3.01
I assumed here that the debt servicing cost for the remainder of the project financing is included in the $200,000,000 fixed costs per year.