OTCPK:MAUXF - Post by User
Comment by
CalifDreamingon Sep 05, 2008 3:15am
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Post# 15433115
RE: CalifDreaming
RE: CalifDreamingPFE is a steal right here. Will release updated reserve valuation later this month. I expect proved reserves close to $800MM- $1B and 2P close to $1.5-$2B at 10% discount. Current EV is about $650MM. Their big debt is what worries the market, but their severe undervaluation for very desirable reserves (100% US assets) should give people confidence that there is good value. They plan to sell off more assets (stuff they bought based on $60 oil prices) to lower debt and then refi the debt to normal interest rates around LIBOR + 3% or so.
Fire sale value of the company is essentially value of proven reserves less debt = $1.50+ a share fully diluted - the substantial probable and possible reserves should be worth another $0.50 a share, or $2+ share. Trading at $0.70 - you couldn't hope to replace reserves and production for that price - PFE is being valued as if oil were $40 bbl.
They will be around 10,000 bpd exit '08, ramping to 12-15K bpd exit '09 depending on drilling success. Are digesting their big '07 asset purchases right now and the market has totally fallen asleep while they revamp the company.
Prices can head anywhere in the short term, but I think current prices are a steal if you have an investment horizon of 12-18 months.