Gold Price vs MozCurse. Yes the price of gold if it went down to $1400 would be a sorry case for most miners however it would still make many of them profitable with short term pain. Most don't have the all in low costs MOZ have one reason to add more MOZ or for that matter SKE if the price did drop which I doubt given the political and money printing we see now. Just look at bit coin what a ride for something I just don't understand and goes poof in an instant. So when all the dust clears Au will still stand out as something tangable and real. I would not mind a pull back to increase MOZ or SKE in holdings. I just don't see any long term downside only short term corrections.
So here's TD take on MOZ valuation at lower Au pricing with increasing reserves.
Justification of Target Price We arrive at our rounded target price by applying a 1.2x target multiple to our corporate NAV. Our key assumptions: a long-term gold price of US$1,500/oz; a 5% discount rate; production commencing in 2024; and equity dilution of 25 million shares at $3.00/share as part of a larger project financing package.
Our NAV also incorporates an Upside Credit of $275 million or $1.08/share to try to account for potential production growth via a larger expansion, as well as for the potential growth in current Resources (4.1 Moz) and Reserves (only 1.9 Moz), with further infill and extension drilling of existing Resources and new exploration.
We believe that our 1.2x target multiple is reasonable for a company we would characterize as having one of the very few high-quality development projects, in a quality jurisdiction with manageable capital requirements and robust economics. Our multiple assumes that the project will be fully permitted within the next 12 months.