Manitok Energy Inc MKRYF

RE:Potential production of around 8.000 bopd at the end of 2014

[ElJ]

Fernando,
                     A few thoughts for consideration:

• Because of definition questions/interpretations on  "potential production"  I suggest that your projection of production numbers and product mix for Q4, 2014 and Q1, 2015 onwards would be more interesting/useful :
  • They would be numbers that can be compared to Actual production achieved at the end of each respective period.
  • Getting from behind pipe to actual sales revenue can have many considerations and certainly wells can come on production at very different(lower) flow rates than the "tested  rates", for many reasons.
  • Third party pipeline and processing constraints can clearly impact and are difficult to assess without detail company information.
  • "Oil to be trucked' can have seasonal and other transportation issues.
  • There may be  on-going implications of the comment in Manitok's Q3, 2014 report that   "3 gross (1.5 net) Cardium oil wells were shut‐in in July 2014 in order to properly manage the Stolberg reservoir pressure, to ensure the maximum recovery of its oil in place".
• My own modeling is suggesting aoorox. 5000 boe at 42% Ngas in Q4, 2014 and in the order of 5800 boe/d in Q1, 2015 which would represent very healthy production increase over Q3, 2014 of 3962 boe/d. Revenues (with obvious uncertainty in the currently non-hedged portion of production) is similarly difficult to project, but my current assumptions and projections indicate revenues in the region of $25 million for Q4, 2014 and $30 million  for Q1, 2015.

Hope that these elements of perspective might be in some way useful,

Peace,
Good Decision-making to All,
ElJ