RE: RE: Swing....and a Miss! Hey Gldblv...
The reason I used the First Quarter results is that due to the fact that for now it is a factual number of the Mill running at very near to full capacity...it was confirmed last quarter at 1,989 Tonnes per day.
Last quarter (Second) as reported by BRD they averaged 1,956 Tonnes per day.
Therefore...lost production per day factoring in all negative issues was 1,989 - 1,956 = 33 T.
33 Tonnes X 90 days (quarter) = 2,970 Tonnes.
2,970 Tonnes X 3.30 g/t (average for month)= 9,801 grams of gold...divided by 31 g (troy ounce) = 316 ounces.
The numbers do not lie...there is no doubt that for whatever reason there was a grade problem or a significant decrease in the Underground Tonnage...I am leaning towards a lower grade from the Underground Feed.
We will get the Final Numbers for the Second Quarter on August 10, 2012...they will expose the reason for the shortfall...I am confident in my numbers and they point towards a problem which may or may not be rectified looking into the next couple of months.
The grade from Underground was well short of the 6.00 g/t that was forecasted.
The problems are factual...I am not disputing that. However, you must realize that when required they can push the Mill to achieve higher throughput and therefore make-up for various problems that occur...and they most definitely happen on a regular basis..but...they are factored in when they came up with the 2,000 tonnes per day average capacity at this time.
My concerns have merit and I will watch this closely!
As for the increase of Milling Capacity they are forecasting improvements of 5-10%...until they can achieve this on a regular basis and confirm the increase it is only a number and we must treat it as such...once it becomes factual we can begin to factor it into our numbers. They should be able to boost capacity once the improvements are completed and I am looking forward to the increase in production.
I am very confident in my analysis and I am raising a red flag in order to give everyone a heads up and what we should be focussed on....use the information wisely...and study the numbers carefully...there is valuable information for your analysis and good investment advice.
Conclusion: If they do not get the grades up they will not be able to get to the 25,000 ounces per quarter as forecast.
Take Care!
Regards,
Digger144
P.S. I do have a significant holding...but...they must do better moving forward for me to stick around....as mentioned I will post any activity in terms of buying or selling BRD.