RE:RE:How Far Will This Rally Go? sonofcroy
I agree with you that there are players that exist, with inside knowledge, in just about all markets.
However, I don't think that it means that they never lose, but they do lose less often and win more than retail customers.
As you point out, a careful reading of price charts (along with volume data) can inform average traders of a stock or commodity under accumulation or distribution.
Also, data about investor sentiment and COT data from futures traders can give us important clues.
The point that I was trying to make in my post is that if a trader can see accumulation patterns in a commodity, such such as gold has shown recently, it is not necessary to know if the bottom developing is short term or longer term.
If a bottom is short lived and gold can rally 5 or 10% a trader can make decent money.
If the rally carries higher, so much the better.
When we see strong evidence of a near term bottom, we don't have to have any notions of the long term.
Personally, I am currently aggressively long miners and GDX and SIL and gold and silver futures.
I think that we may have a muti-week or even multi month rally ahead of us.
It is even possible that it is multi year bottom.
But, I also realize that I may be wrong and I may be playing defense Monday and reducing my risk exposure.
I am just saying that nobody knows, with certainty, where any financial market is going (short-term at least) and I don't think that there are insiders who know for sure.
I look at the markets every day with no preconceived notions of what will happen.
I simply have strategies to control risk when I am wrong about the trend that I am committed to.
Learning proper money management and risk control allows traders to be fearless in committing to the long side, when the evidence seems compelling that gold has based.
And, if we have large positions, it keeps us from going broke when we are wrong about the trend.
That's why I said that money management is more important than forecasting ability.
goldguy