Novus Energy Inc NOVUF

IR on holidays until jan 9th

[largeinvest]

tried to call about a production update...no luck.  I supposed I could bother the CFO, but I'm sure he has more important things to do like crunching our buyout numbers :-)

[Shlinker_]

...a 33% chance of buyout, 33% chance of merger, and 33% chance of status quo. imho. Cheers.

[largeinvest]

If we were to be ultra conservative in a buyout or merger price, what value would that be, I got $1.35.  A modest buyout around $1.50, and a knock my socks off buyout at $1.70

[luckythor]

Firstly, if the IR dept. is on holidays till Jan 9th, I do not believe anything will happen til their return. Secondly, largeinvest as much as I appreciate your numbers, I believe they are low and here is my logic. Without using formulas, Teine Energy paid $180 million for Long Run (1800boed) if NVS production is 4200boed as of Dec 31st that takeover formula would bring $420 million which is

[guibou]

Shlinker,   I agree with you on that scenario...   Good luck and a Happy New Year to you and all the NVS shareholders.   Jean-Paul    

[largeinvest]

I would love for that secnario.  Altough if we assume corporations are taxed a total of 25%, we can't give full value to those tax pools.     

[bobshere]

I haven't seen very many takeovers giving a 75% premium. I hope you are right tho. I am thinking 1.30-1.40 if we are lucky.>

[largeinvest]

I would say if you picture $1.35, your not going to be disappointed in the outcome.  Its better to be ultraconservative in your in calculations then be upset and dissapointed in the outcome. 

[largeinvest]

Seems IR did get back to me, despite being on vacation.  Looks like its a wait and see now. 

[luckythor]

I agree that we can not give full value to the tax pool, but 25% of $250K does cover the debt.

[Feruk]

I'd be very happy with $1.50+, but I don't even think $1.35 is realistic. My price guess is $1.25 which is a 40% premium for $0.90 at time of announcement, the number we should be looking at. The difference from $0.90 to today's $1.06 is largely already part of the pricing in of a potential sale. My biggest fear is a bad merger deal (see: Vero or Westfire), or no deal, at which point I

[largeinvest]

There is no reason why Teine wouldn't bid for our viking assets at roughly the same price they paid for the Long run assets, a slight discount offered for the more gassy production.  $1.25 is way to low compared to the recent transactions we can compare NVS to.  https://www.fairfieldsuntimes.com/articles/2012/12/18/business/doc50d0b4b37251e665797921.txt

[largeinvest]

To get to $1.25, your saying they would only sell for $75k per flowing?  Doesn't make any sense.    $75k  x 4200=315 million -65 million debt add $18 million option proceeds $268 million 212 million shares out =$1.26 Why would they sell for $75 per flowing when the most recent transaction went for $95k.  Granted that transaction was 95% oil and we are only 85% oil, but

[largeinvest]

The good news about Teine bidding, is that it would be an all cash offer as they are a private comany.  We don't have to worry about the aquiring company shares plunging.  I stick by my projections of $1.35 min if its a cash offer, and if its a share offer they would need at least $1.50 to account for the declines in the aquiring companies stock.    But lets say there is no