RE:What's a fair price RIGHT NOW?
I have been reading the most recent posts and decided to chime in. I have compared NSU with FM, TECK, and CG. and I would can conclude that NSU is trading in line with these other producers. The main factor that could explain the "extra discount" is: 1. The cut in dividend (which has taken this stock to the woodshed), and 2. The Met issues. Nevsun 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 BULL $ 5.46 $ 5.89 $ 6.06 $ 6.40 NORMAL MARKET HI $ 4.10 $ 4.54 $ 4.48 $ 4.14 NORMAL MARKET LO $ 3.42 $ 3.86 $ 3.69 $ 3.01 BEAR $ 2.74 $ 3.18 $ 2.90 $ 1.88 First Quantum 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 BULL $ 32.72 $ 37.00 $ 34.62 $ 33.84 NORMAL MARKET HI $ 18.07 $ 19.87 $ 18.61 $ 17.88 NORMAL MARKET LO $ 2.39 $ 2.75 $ 3.59 $ 3.98 BEAR $ 3.41 $ 2.75 $ 2.60 $ 1.92 TECK.B 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 BULL $ 58.69 $ 59.09 $ 53.50 $ 56.10 NORMAL MARKET HI $ 32.29 $ 31.81 $ 28.00 $ 29.76 NORMAL MARKET LO $ 19.09 $ 18.16 $ 15.25 $ 16.60 BEAR $ 5.89 $ 4.52 $ 2.50 $ 3.43 Centerra 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 BULL $ 10.38 $ 9.59 $ 10.06 $ 12.18 NORMAL MARKET HI $ 8.38 $ 7.94 $ 8.00 $ 8.40 NORMAL MARKET LO $ 7.37 $ 7.12 $ 6.97 $ 6.52 BEAR $ 6.37 $ 6.30 $ 5.95 $ 4.63 Impeccable Timing soulMiner soulMiner wrote: I bought into Nevsun on the dive following divi cut. Have sympathy for all those who were positioned before and expected to reap benefits of the dividend. This has clearly been handled very badly by Nevsun's management. Although i may be wrong but I see limited downside from here. Assuming commodities do not fall out of bed and the copper issues are fixed, the downside is limited for NSU. For what it's worth, NSU will trade in a range of $3.03 to $4.17 CDN. This range is based on all earnings being used for exploration and development of new resources (like Timok). This analysis uses a balance sheet approach to evaluate miners. Should commodity prices increase significantly (i.e. 10% - 20% from current levels), we could see NSU trade as high as $6.44 CDN. However, if things truly turn for the worse for commodities, the downside could be as low as $1.90 CDN should spending not be controlled. In a buyout scenario (given current conditions), an additional upside of $1.75 to $2.50 CDN is likely (no value for LZ or "new" Bisha reserves at this time as there are no disclosures). Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.nsu/nevsun-resources-ltd?postid=25966669#xrwidpwxPuGPT3fk.99 Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.nsu/nevsun-resources-ltd?postid=26109723#Mkmp6fu7JYVPJQyx.99