Iron Brdg Res Inc. OEXFF

RE:RE:Market Reaction

[ditchdigger251]

Overall I'm pleased with IBR getting the facilities appropriately expanded to 6500 boed and having enough disposal capacity to really get things rocking and rolling (I agree 100% with Beakr123).  That said I think they've done some wheel spinning in the area of stage tracer analysis (although the downhole chokes will address hydrates until the wells are totally drawn down).  From my personal experience and other operators I've heard talk about their tracer experience the analysis for the most part is loose conjecture.  There's enough heterogeniety involving absolutely mind blowing load fluid volumes that it literally can take months before all of the stages have started contributing and possibly over a year of hard production before tracer analysis could honestly give a decent quantitative comparison between stages.  I'm glad that they might have had a sand bridge in the first well but was it?  When I've hit a bridge that I knew was a bridge capable of affecting flow it was like hitting a piece of solid concrete and took a bit of circulating to get it out - that said every well is different and IBR is being diligent - but once they've got enough of these HZ's under their belts they'll know how to read well behaviour without getting caught up in using somewhat opaque completion diagnostic methods.  I'm not sure if they can do this on coil but given that there's no ball seats maybe they could do a spinner survey after 6 mo.'s of production to check to see if all the stage ports are contributing (it's a yes or no thing since inflow from every stage varies all the time - sorta like milk from a cow's teet).  Best to keep their wells flowing hard as much as possible and proactively address op issues like scale or hyrates or corrosion or whatever until everything's levelled out, drawn down and optimized.

Maybe the White Knight thing's gonna work but really they just have to focus on filling their facility up in time for winter pricing.  My advice is to get on with finalizing financing and get drilling now.  The cold won't really hit until the 2nd weeks of November so they could drill 3 wells and have them completed and tied in by Christmas just in time for what I think will be $3+ gas (storage is looking to be 600bcf under the 5 yr average - and this winter WILL be a cold one) and WTI could very well be $90 with the Iranian sanctions taking off potentially 1.2 to 1.5 mmbbls/d.  Nothing attracts a white knight like cashflow and sucessful continued drilling activity.