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Oromin Explorations Ltd OLEPF



GREY:OLEPF - Post by User

Comment by minedtheprofit1on Sep 04, 2011 1:11am
317 Views
Post# 19010509

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Reloading.....

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Reloading.....I don't need friends on stockhouse, lol. I care about making money.

just some back of the envelope calculations.

first off you a buy out of 7 puts the cap of ole close to 1billion for 43.5% of ojvg. then you have the other two parties, what's their take if they own the other piece of the pie - 2b? so 3billion total for the whole asset?

let's do a calculation on a buyout of 5, keep in mind that ole owns only 43.5%. at 5 buyout and premium of 500% percent at current price that will value ole's share at 650m-700.

at those buyout prices, the suitor will be paying an exploration company 1000 an ounce on whatever its on the ground! for 43.5% of the project.

name me a major that bought a junior at over 1000 an ounce? most juniors are bought well below 100/ounce on a multi million ounce project. 

also anyone who buys the asset wants 100% not 43.5% so any suitor will buy all or none. 

what's the nav of proven and probable reserves? what's the lom? what's the capex? can you answer any of this? I bet you can't and if you can then do your calculations. this stock is overvalued at 1.20-1.25

you're basing your 7 buyout just because you like to pull numbers out of thin air.

second you're likely suitor of african barrick - that company has a market cap of 3.5, do you think they'd dilute their shareholders by 25% and for 43.5% of the project?

are you telling me that the whole ojvg project is valued at over 3b?

more than the market cap of many mining companies like aurico who's actually producing, and close to the same valuation of detour gold's project at 3.6b and over 10m ounces in the ground.

so that leaves IMG, do you actually think they will take a run at OLE at 7? ok how about 5, again at 650m-700m which is 10 % of the company assume all stock and then turn around and pay the other partners 1b again all stock so that's another 15%. for the whole project they'd be giving away 25% of the company in an all stock deal.

these are back of the envelope calculations and there's a reason why ole will never get those premiums of 5 or 7. the company is overvalued at 1.20. 

how about you convince me and do the math.


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