Simply Wall St againThanks to TMAZZI.
I have used Simply Wall St for some time, but have not looked at their analysis of fair value for ONCY for some time. Their calculations of fair value could basically be defined as an analysis of the net present value of the company, over 20 years, divided by the current number of shares. They do a two stage dcf analysis. If you look on the ONCY page, which should be available to non-subscribers, you can find their fair value analysis. There is a button you can use on the lower right titled Data. There they show all the data they use in their analysis. They take two analyst's estimates of cash flows over the next 10 years. Here are the data in current dollars (that is, including inflation over time): 2023: -$29.97 mil (US); 2024: -41.74 mil; 2025: -36.14 mil; etc etc. In 2027 they start making money at a huge rate. The present value of 10 years of DCF is 1318 mil discounted at 6.51%. The present value over 20 years is 8,993 mil. All this is based on the assumptions (it seems) that ONCY runs a trial for mBC and is licenced in 2026-2027 to seel product. It says nothing about panc, mm, other colorectal, or the array of I/O combos. It says nothing about a buyout.
With this analysis, which you can look up and is based on very conservative estimates we start to see huge amounts of value in ONCY.
"Fair value" is not "market price or market value". It is what someone who had a 6.51% discount rate would see as the present value of the investment over 20 years, with these highly conservative assumptions. Of course, there are also assumptions that ONCY will get licensed, and pela gets sold at some price that has been assumed by analysts. It says nothing about future dilution of share numbers.
One begins to see some strong rationales for the numbers put up on this board by Noteable and others about buy-out prices.
Sorry for the long message, but I have been reading fair values on SWS for some time and have thoughts about what they mean and might be interpreted.