Oncolytics Biotech Inc ONCY

Average cost to bring drug candidate to market = US$2.3 Bln

[Noteable]

According to Deloitte's recent report the average cost for Big Pharma to bring a drug to market for one indication was US$2.3 Billion in 2022 - up $298 Million from 2021 - but down from 2019 and 2020 - due to Covid-19 . 

With 3 indications (pancreatic, breast and colorectal cancer) potentially approaching registration, and ONCY's $500 Million in transferable R&D expenses, ONCY's acquisition valuation falls within Big Pharma's M&A "sweet spot" of US$5 to US$15 Billion.

And since Pfizer's intent to acquire Seagen remains unresolved due to the same US government's competition regulations that precluded Merck's (MSD) earlier attempt to acquire Seagen last year, Pfizer would not be able to close the acquisition until 2024 if allowed to proceed. And because of this Pfizer will be looking to a "bolt-on" acquistion in 2023, that would not undergo government competition scrutiny as would be happening with Seagen, and that would fall with the above M&A "sweet spot" that an acquisition of ONCY would provide.

So along with other Big Pharma companies, Pfizer remains a significant acquirer of ONCY, particularly because of ONCY's synergistic asets with Pfizer's current and future assets, such as Seagen's anti-body drug conjugates (ADC), given pelareorep's synergistic effects with immune checkpoint inhibitors - and Pfizer's intent to combine ADCs with its immune checkpoint inhibitors. However - without ONCY's pelareorep, Pfizer's plans to combine ADCs with ICIs would not be as impactful due to the ADC's limited affect on enhancing ICIs due to a hypoxic TME and an inability to "prime" the innate/adaptive immune system, which pelareorep has shown it can address.

[Noteable]

So very simply stated ONCY's valuation just on 3 indications that are close to market is at least US$ 6.9 Bln. 

[Noteable]

Then add in ONCY's transferable R&D expenses of $500 million, the valuation increases to US$6.9 Billion + $500 million = US$7.4 Billion 

[westcoast1000]

Noteable, I would be ecstatic to take a third or half of that next month. I know, I know, that is too little based on your analysis. And I respect your analysis. But time and uncertainty matter a lot, particularly to older folks.

[Buckhenry]

first... unnoteable is full of dung as a Christmas turkey and second.... he bounces the buyout price around like a kangaroo.... u pumpers are so desperate you digging up old material from several years ago..  I guess its either that for pay for another psychiatrist session. 

[Noteable]

With Big Pharma's recently announced anti-TIGIT failures, ONCY's potential valuation keeps on increasing.

[Quentin30]

 More pump Noteable... "prime" the innate/adaptive immune system, which pelareorep has shown it can address." Yes, and Pfizer knows this also, what they do not know, and which YOU do not know either, is whether the addition of a Checkpoint inhibitor to the doublet of Pela + Pax, gives significantly more durable response, than with Pela and Pax without a CPI. The primary

[Noteable]

Pelareorep's ability to "prime" the innate and adaptive immune system has been documented and pelareorep's PFS is about to be elaberated in a major medical meeting in the next 3 months, according to ONCY in repeated corporate updates. And any reference to a 400 patient Phase III clinical trial also may also be referencing a Phase 3/4 confirmatory trial AFTER an accelerated

[Noteable]

Correction "elaborated".

[Noteable]

Correction : And any reference to a 400 patient Phase III clinical trial may also be referencing a Phase 3/4 confirmatory trial that would be planned by ONCY's acquirer and executed AFTER an accelerated approval has been granted in metastatic breast cancer (mBC).

[Noteable]

And according to Deloitte's report this month, the average cost for Big Pharma to bring a drug to market for one indication was US$2.3 Billion in 2022 -  In ONCY's case this company has multiple cancer indications which represent multiples of value to the US$2.3 Billion average cost per indication. Just sayin" .......

[Noteable]

March 26, 2023 repost  And according to Deloitte's report this month, the average cost for Big Pharma to bring a drug to market for one indication was US$2.3 Billion in 2022 -  In ONCY's case this company has multiple cancer indications which represent multiples of value to the US$2.3 Billion average cost per indication.