RE: TheFrog2The thing that is relatively easy to forget, especially for those that havent been involved in this story for that long, is that this company has an enormous amount of baggage...
Basically, over the course of the last 6 years, this story has frustrated and alienated the who's-who of canadian institutions thru bungles and misteps and miscommunication....not to mention those that feel they are "stuck" in the story.
In fairness to management, some of the mis-steps and misfortune have been somewhat out of their control... there certainly has been some unforseen misfortune and just plain bad luck.... but calling a spade a spade..... the majority of the blame is the result of a terribly overambitious and overly optimistic approach to their business coupled with terrible execution.
Over and Over and Over again, we have been told of new frac plants, new frac licensing deals, new resin / ligand deals pending FILTER market launch and associated revenues...and, of course, everyones favourite, "ongoing" negotiations with "multiple" potential 1402 multinational partners,blah blah blah... it has just gone on and on and on for the last few years to a degree that can only be described as comical.
BOTTOM LINE... the market has learned to largely ignore the talk ( and shareholder letters! ) that management has put out quarter after quarter....
WE ARE IN WHAT THE MARKET CALLS A SHOW-ME MODE... meaning, big money isnt doing anything until we see the big deal (or deals) that have been promised for so long.
The interesting thing that arises out of situaiton like this, is that virtually NO speculation premium is built into this stock. There is almost ZERO speculative buying. If anything, we are seeing the contrary... non believers liquidating...
From my perspective, this has resulted in a substantial GAP in valuation. In my opinion, the market is "behind the curve" on this story now.... I continue to believe that this is the best "value" that this stock has represented for the 5 years that I have been involved.
I am not saying that the story is without risk, but I think this company has finally turned the corner, and the future looks very promosing. Its going to take ONE WIN, ONE indisputably good deal in one of the business segments, to validate all of the other potential... THEN we will see a re-pricing of this company, and I dont see why the market cant justify a $500mm market cap without too much trouble...
I guess that is what "makes a market" !
good luck