RE: i'm convinced
So the short interest was up substantially as at Oct 15th... and I would bet that it is up again since then.... we'll see at the end of the month. Frankly this size of short isnt really huge for a company with close to 250mm shares outstanding, but if you sell aggressively and maliciously, it can have a pretty substantial affect on share price, especially in the absense of good news, catalysts or supportive buying.
Its quite clear to me that whomever is shorting is betting against managements ability to deliver enough $$ in the form of recurring revenues, or licensing, or whatever..... and the fact that they will have to re-finance yet again.
To be brutally honest, whatever hedge fund (or funds) that have been playing this game with PLI for the last couple of years, have a better track record of success than management does !
MY BET.... this time is different... I think the short guys have it wrong..... and I think they got suprised by Paradigm's positive report... and the considerably buying that came in as a result... In fact, if my read on their timing is correct, I think they started this time around at 43-45 cents...right when there was some actual portfolio dilution by one of the US funds..... Its very common practice for an aggressive hedger to "front run" and big seller in the market place.... force the seller to sell more aggressively... and short into their sales for profit. That is exactly what we saw from 45 down to 35..... Recall that ITG and #1 sold agressively down into the mid 30's.... which means they are likely way off-side on their trade if I am right.
BOTTOM LINE : stay long if you believe that the Blood Magazine publicity... and the results themselves, can lead to further speculation of a deal on 1402, or an actual deal. I do truly think this time is different... and the shorts and sellers are caught by real and fundamental buying.....and the prospect of a tangible deal.....
but then again... I am a Canucks fan too.