RE: Listen to conference call or Paradigm I hate to say it, because they have proven us wrong so many times.... but I must admit I think they might actually be in a position to avoid further equity dilution, at least at these very depressed levels. If anything, with the intellectual and enterprise value of the company increasing, along with stronger cash flows, you would think the easiest course would be to RE-DO the long term debt portion of the balance sheet, in conjunction with monetizing some of their solid long term contracts with these major players.
If for instance, IF the large pharma co that keeps getting mentioned is Glaxo Smithkline as has been suggested, and they were in fact issuing a purchase order in the $5-$7mm range this year as PS alluded to, this should be a completely bankable recievable. This is done all the time... The same could be said for the deals with Abraxis, Octopharma and even Macopharma when things get rolling with them. If you listen closely to the webcast, I think this is exactly what PL was saying. Now that they have more predictable and recurring orders from these tier one companies, these orders are financeable.
I also think the market hasnt given enough credit for the repayment of almost the entire $10mm long term debt... this gives the company a reasonable amount of breathing room again... especially given the seemingly improving environment....and the fact that they are largely in a recession proof, cash rich sector.... and are arguably a great partner / takeover candidate. They have to be able to refinance this given the fundamental underlying values.
The fact that we are sitting stuck at 13 cents is frustrating and painful... and probably even somewhat deserved in many respects... there have certainly been alot of bungles and missteps.... However, I honestly do think the pall of negativity that has been around this story for so long, is also preventing alot of people from seeing that there is actually solid fundamental gains being realized here by the company. Yes things have perenially taken longer than expected, yes they have been terrible forecasters and wildly overoptimistic... yes they have gotten into far too many hairbrained deals with weak partners....... BUT, this is quietly turning into a very real company, with real contracts, with real cash flow, with an absolutely terrific patented technology platform..... and virtually NONE of that is baked into this share price. Instead, the same old same old characters are pressing hard to force them into another equity financing, and I think they will be disappointed.
I had to laugh at Felco's comment, because I couldnt agree more. You can decide that you are going to bail at 17 on any news, cuz your just fed up and done with this piano around our necks... but the news that gets us there will also likely be the news that gets us to $1.00 and beyond.... and the only thing I would hate myself for more than being stuck in this story for 7 years, is selling and watching it go to $15. I am buying more... Note RBC and CIBC quiet accumulation and short covering... Once the blocks from 92 (Politt) are out of the way, we will be back testing 20 + even in the absence of news..... and if any shoe drops whatsoever... we will easilly be back in the 30-40 cent range kicking our arses for not having the kahoons to back the truck up here... just like you didnt buy POT at $68 or RIMM at $34
good discussion