quite the ride....
I dont get around to reading the board much anymore, but I see that some of the oldtime posters who's posts I enjoy find informative are still around and sticking to their guns ! good on you boyz ( and gals )
The timing of the NBI slaughter, and the unfortunate delays in a handful of PLI expected catalysts have sure made for a bumpy and uncomfortable ride over the last few months... yikes. Quite the news void....and after all the positive momentum, this has been a real gut-check.
With all that said, i dont think I have ever personally been more excited at the prospects of this company from both a short and long term perspective as I am right now. In normal terms, when positive catalys anticipation is so palpable, my tendency would be to err on the side of caution, looking to sell into strength.... but this time does truly feel different... and that is hard for me to say !
For far too many years I have been a staunch critic of the frustrating, overpromise / underdeliver mantra. It did and still does drive me nuts... But for a very long time we have said that these guys have had the tiger by the tail in terms of the quality and transformational enabling technologies they were investing in... I am one that believes firmly that the market has grossly underappreciated the IP value that has been created here. Alot of that comes back to mgmt itself because of the constant overpromise and myopic focus on revenue as it pertains to what is communicated to the market....and candidly their overoptimistic forecasts on the timing of various initiatives. Dont get me wrong, revenue ultimately drives the bus... but clearly there has been far too much optimism in terms of how quickly this company could turn their developed processes and products into consistent and solid revenue growth.
My gut feel is that all of that is about to change with the stream of the various trial and efficacy data we are set to get over the next year. Positive results from any one of the many trials going on can be a game changer. Being entirely objective, the chances of one or more of these trials completely flopping is obviously fairly high... but by the same token, the chances of one or more being successul is fairly high as well....particularly considering how compelling the animal model data has been.
Any meaningful positive result will obviously force the market to revalue the revenue stream attributed to the specific compound, but more than that...it will force the market to revalue this company based on its ability to see thru other compounds in the pipe, and generate completely new opportunties. Perhaps most importantly, any meaningful positive trial data WILL be the last required pc in the puzzle for Pierre to get deals done, either by industry, by indiciation or by geography...
I have to give Pierre specifically credit, because despite many begging for him to sell off one or more of these major drivers, he has financed his way thru.... and built the respective values far beyond what the company would have realized.... and I think its payoff time.