RE:RE:RE:While we wait....RC... I see the situation differently.
Its clear the SRAM funds havent come in given the draw on the LOC. So what does that mean about the future of the SRAM deal ? I was told repeatedly it was an issue of getting $$ out of China and nothing to do with the partner.... But we were also told to expect follow on licensing deals... which havent materialized either. Hard to know whats really going on and the company has been far too quiet on this issue. Perhaps it gets unwound completely in favour or a worldwide licensing deal ? ( although admittedly thats a pie in the sky view )
Either way, at this point I think the SRAM situation is probably priced in.... the expectation is a negative outcom not positive...
Same can be said somewhat re the Pg / FDA file. There has been SO MUCH made about how quiet Prometic has been on the FDA Pg application front recently. There have been rumours swirling around about the prospect of some form of CMC related delay.... with Doug Miehm even printing in his recent update that a 3 month delay ( similar to TH's ) is quite possible. Ultimately only the FDA really knows..... If you consider that the likelihood of ultimate approval still stands at well north of 80% ... we are only likely talking about tweaking some manufacturing / plant stuff at worst here...
At this point, IF there is an FDA delay... it would obviously not be positive.... but is it the end of the world by any means ? particularly if it ended up being 30-60 days longer like THERA's situation... which ultimately resulted in an approval and big gap up.
They called the LOC an insurance policy, and in retrospect they look smart to have it in place.
If i truly try to stand back and ask myself objectively if the IP Value has grown in the last 6-9 months... the answer is unequvocally YES. The stock is not reflecting that, its reflecting disappointment and the balance sheet uncertainty. its reflecting undelivered promises to monetize the IP.... ITs reflecting the uncertainty around how they fund their huge IPF trials set to start recruiting a quarter from now.
How much does an FDA yes change things ? I would say ALOT under these circumstances. The setup is completely negative here. I say an FDA yes is a game changer..... and IF it comes with a voucher.... it takes alot of heat off the prospect of a dilutive raise here, which is also part of the overhang
Llike almost all these situations, it seems like the smart money is way out in front. You only need look back at the Credit Suisse selling that started up at the $1.80 level on the back of PL and Freds NY meetings. and now candidly, it continues to feel like the manipulation is biased towards accumulation here, and as has correctly been pointed out, the stock feels somewhat sold out.... and the short position is decreasing as the catalysts approach.
Bottom line.. The stock action and the short attack and all the related uncertainty is weighing on everyone and its lead to liquidations.. But when you sit back and ask if this is undervalued or overvalued ... the risk reward continues to favour a sharp move higher, as i do believe most of the weak hands are out... and you have most everyone else looking thru this fog and noise...and prepared to wait for the catalyst that will revalue this company. There will be a day where this stock is properly reflecting the underlying growth in IP and PIPELINE value.... and I continue to believe the path to a Nasdaq list is what will get us there.
Could it go lower on any one of the rumoured headlines.... I suppose it could.... but in my opinion, not enough to prompt me to sell into short covering at these levels... particularly when anything remotely positive has alot of gas for a sharp and sustained move higher. When rumours make it feel obvious to sell, its almost always the wrong move.... and I think thats exactly whats playing out.