Peregrine Diamonds Ltd. PGDIF

EKIM, saw your post on SI

[justanormalguy]

Ekim, personally I would really appreciate your thoughts (update) on CH7 and CH6 valuation (cpt, expected mining tonnage in PEA, and diamond valuation), with all things considered (FX, etc).  In-situ and NPV, pre- and post- PEA.  

In normal environments, and this aint close to normal, a material jump in Enterprise Value occurs between Pre and Post PEA.  I certainly don't expect "normal" for a long while, but my cards will be all in next week plus a second hand for the long haul.

Thanks, Normal Guy

[ekim]

Hey Normal Guy. The biggest question to me for the immediate future is how forgiving the valuator will be for the breakage results in the valuation model. It is easy to take a damaged octahedron with a chip taken out of a corner and give a valuation based on that chip not being there. It is a bit harder taken another stone that is half broken and imaging the other half exists and give a value on

[mill44]

Don't forget that, according to the press release, they managed to reconstruct half of the broken diamonds. So maybe you don't need that much of imagination. The market will have to reconsider things if the valuation acknowledges the breakage.

[Kidlapik]

Such a blurry picture. Breakage messing everything up. 45% browns/grey; expert stating gem quality would be more affected than less than gem quality gems due to shattering affect, PGD saying sample color percentages are scued negativily due to breakage, expecting negatively scued valuation, already have negatively scued grade. Chance for sub 0.10 shares between now and valuations? Chance for sub

[mill44]

If Ekim's numbers, your view and even mine is not completely flawed, I don't think the Friedlands will be the only ones interested in this. If that interest shows up at exercising, that would be the catalyst, a major change in this game. Could be more beneficial for us than a JV.

[ekim]

You are right MIll. Rick Rule has come out and said he is purposely ignorant on diamonds. However, not everyone is Rick rule and there are industry people in the investment community who know a lot more about diamonds then you and I. A breakage study comes with the business....it was just fed ot us on a platter for ch-7 with very little opinions attached. PGD is allowed to give raw certified

[Kidlapik]

Im still kind of amazed this did not fall below ten pennies when the results hit the market. I thought for sure people would just see the 0.88 and run for the hills considering the panic that is going on in the markets right now. Fire sales everywhere.

[mill44]

The damage was done already, in Nov.

[ekim]

I agree Kid. Taking the that news release on ch-7 at face value and also completely ignoring the 1 to 1.2 million tonnes  additional material of CH-6 that looks like an unimportant footnote..under 10 cents was/is a real possiblity. LONG...PGD EKIM

[maintenance1]

I always saw the Friedlands taking this private as the biggest risk. What was begining to worry me was what if the results are good and the market dumps shares anyway. That is what happened. I suspect had they reported 2.5 cpt the stock would have tanked anyway.  It seems to me that by this point in the last rights offering the share price had already begun to move up to ensure excersize

[mill44]

That's exactly why I expect someone to take advantage of the retail confusion. This is a big opportunity for someone interested. Lots of shares available and dirt cheap. Buying up big lots won't even drive the price because of the time constraint.

[ekim]

The press release basically said they will. Although it sounds like they don't usually unless it is material. This is material by far. I recall a stone in the early days of exploration at Chidliak that they showed a photo of in one of the PDF's. I can't find it currently. They have one photo (yellow diamond) in the current bulk sample that they suspect is part of the same stone. Is

[justanormalguy]

Thank you Ekim very much.  You brought up two things i hadn't considered a) the ratio of good stones to bad stones could increase materially depending on that 10% to 40% shattered gem quality dropping out of the sample and 2) the 4+ carat comparison to CH6.   Both have potential to add to base valuation.  Good stuff!!   Thanks, Normal Guy