and assume zero for contingent liabilites which could be as much as 20 billion

With stock up a further 140% in 2 mths . Perhaps what is baked in vastly exceeds even 1 MM units for 2021. Maybe 1.5 million ? 


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4400247-growth-forecasts-for-teslas-chinese-demand-are-exuberantly-unrealistic