Geodan2 wrote: Hi Marben, in regard to how much more will be found in 540 meters, if they found as much as in the initial area just on a 3x3 metter tunnel that works out to $40 billion Cad of gold. That is not what people are expecting, it would be in realm of 25 million oz.
So put yourself in their shoes. They said in effect "substancially more" than 5,000 to 7,000 more oz for the rest of it. How do they know what is in it? The only clue they have is they hit bonanza grade ore 200 meters away on level 14, that is it. The rest is unknown. It could be 5,000 oz or it could be 100,000 oz. They have no way to tell now. What would you say under that circumstance? With a range say fo 5,000 to 100,000? I would say at least 5,000 oz and leave it at that.
Look what happened when they made an error is calulating the gold percent in the boulders? It crashed the stock 20% in one day. The last thing they want to do is overestimate the gold in those 540 meters.
We can be sure right now it can not be estimated accuartely, they will have to mine and drill a lot more to have a clue.
The error on the gold boulders was amazingly bad. I have done those calcs as on the gold specimen on my hand here.
https://imgur.com/a/9lBE2BW and came out within 10%. Huge mistake, obvisouly they have never done gold content calcs before.
So back to 4Q. They have 10,000oz from low grade (that is what they have been doing), and 6,000 to 9,000 of bonanza garde (difference between 21,000 done in 3Q and what is left for 27 to 30k they same is minimum in immediate area. So that means they have at midpoint 17,500 oz in the bag for 4Q.
They did 31,000 in 3Q so that means all they have to do to beat the 3Q is find 12,500 more oz. I think they will do it, we have to remember they just found out the geologic model was correct Sept 2, and have redeployed resources to focus on it now, whereas it was a one man test in early Sept, no focus at all. In the last week they started drilling and blasting again. I expect and believe the odds are that they do quite a bit betetr than 12,500 oz for the rest of the month.
Cheers