GREY:ROAOF - Post by User
Comment by
TO1on Jan 01, 2008 2:31pm
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strange....VT75
strange....VT75Why is it strange that OIL is trading up?
When it fell 30% from the $17.92 high, we later found out why. A 30% decrease in expected production to 18-20k/d in December. So the drop was justified at that time.
Now the pumps are turned on and the production has already increased, as stated in the December 21 NR. That NR states that it will continue to increase as they optimize the production system over the “next few weeks” from the time of the report. It’s already been 2 weeks since that report, so production should have increased since then as well. As production rises, the CF rises and so does the SP.
Institutional clients always find out news first, good or bad. Retail always find out last as was the case with the reason behind the 30% SP drop 2 months after it started.
Brenda/Nicol was never going to flow 30k/d under natural flow. It needed the pumps working to achieve anything near those flows. Art was clear about this in the last AGM. All I know is that Brenda/Nicol production is increasing since Dec 21 and OIL now has added production (1,800 bod) from the Balmoral field as well.
Now time will tell what Brenda/Nicol will produce as all production numbers up until January 2008 will not show a clear picture as the wells were all flowing under natural flow, without the pumps being operational. It would be like comparing apples to oranges. B/c the main variable of the pumps being operational is going to be a factor in one set of production numbers (Jan 2008 and on), but not in the other (Dec 2007 and before).
On the bright side, every barrel that was not produced at the beginning at $60 oil now gets sold for $90+.