GREY:STPJF - Post by User
Comment by
pricecheckon2on Oct 25, 2007 12:22am
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Post# 13684924
RE: Where the hot money flows
RE: Where the hot money flowsCleary your life consists of sitting around reading the never ending propoganda of world oil supply and demand balance.
A few important facts for your consideration.
1. Oil prices are rising both due to fundamentals and political risk in Iraq etc.
2. The giant fields have been found but in a relative sense many of the basins of the world are UNDER EXPLORED relative to Alberta.
3. The price of oil has little or now bearing on the share price of STP on an hourly basis as in case you forget to read it, STP DOESNT PRODUCE ANY OIL.
4. STP is likely to be more than 3-5 years away from ever producing oil due to the scope of government approvals, environmental assessments etc.
5. STP will need to raise an enormous amount of capital to develop these "reserves" This not only will be difficult to do in the current state of the capital markets but also extremely dilutive to current STP shareholders.
6. Reference to my post a month ago, this "oil" still needs to be upgraded before coming close to being a marketable product. Mining projects full cycle have rate of returns under 9% and SAGD projects are far worse than mining after factoring in the upgrading capital as well.
7. The Alberta governments royalty grab to be announced will very likely put the breaks on capital allocated to oil sands for 5-10 years REGARDLESS OF THE PRICE POINT OF OIL WORLDWIDE as returns on government T-bills will be higher than oil sands.
8. LaG will post 28274 updates of oil prices per week until he finds his pot of gold in the oil sands!!
Be sure to watch Stelmach tomorrow. I sold my STP and will be buying back in after the post-royalty meltdown that will hit the market on Friday.