My further calculation of March number
On March 17 new release,
It says " The production was split between STP-McKay (2,187 bbl/d) and STP-Senlac (2,084 bbl/d), representing a 12% increase from the prior month." for Feb.
It also says "In February, the 2P1 well pair averaged 695 bbl/d, an increase of 87% compared to 371 bbl/d in December"
If we take 695 bpd off the Feb number, the rest is 1492 bpd. Given that 2P1 stopped production during most of January for ICD installation and well warming up, 2P1 contributed very little to January number. Prior to ICD installation, 2P1 produced 371 bpd in last December. we assumed 2P1 produced one week at 371 bpd for January, it would contribute 86 bpd to January average number. we add this number on top of 1492 bpd, we can have January number at 1578 bpd.
Now it is time for March number. For Q2, average bitumen for STP-McKay was 1987 bpd, and average number for January was 1578 bpd. Thus we have March number calculated at 2280 bpd.
In today's report, it states "The Company believes it has since established prudent operating parameters and has been gradually increasing the production of the well pair back up since the last week of March."
Based on the numbers, the statement and my last post, if STP bring up 2P1 production to 800bpd again in April, it would add another 200 bpd (2P1 only cut production for half of March) on top of March number for April. April number would be around 2500 bpd.
If my calculation and estimate is correct, this number is the best number ever for STP-Mckay.
If 1P5 improved production in April, the result was even better.
Hopefully, my calculation makes you guys released and relax a little bit.