Southern Pacific Resource Corp STPJF

A non qualified crazy take on shareholder value

[adamsight]

I feel it would cost at least 500 million to build a plant like mckay and althought they seemingly have abandoned the idea of 12000 bpd I will base my evaluation on that.
With production in mind senlac at 3500 bpd would cost 125 million to get going. I am rounding up the advised costs to offset expenditures that may not be seen
Oil Asset value, noting the sale of non core assets at .29 a barrel was for best estimate contingent and not proved plus probable with pending application. But for this purpose I am saying its only worth .29


*According to news release
https://www.marketwired.com/press-release/southern-pacific-announces-188-million-non-core-asset-disposition-tsx-stp-1833757.htm
a best estimate contingent resources assignment of 64.6 million barrels (value .29 per barrel in the ground)

500 Million McKay cost to build
125 Million for Senlac cost to build
______________
625 Million
- 55 million for spacer wells Mckay to get to full capacity
- 10 million for ICDs Mckay to increase to mor capacity
- 15 million to drill out and get Senla up to capacity
- 90 million drawn on new loan
- 300 million in 1st term notes
-173 million in debentures
643 million total
__________
-18 million is the difference
+ assets of company in oil
105 million for 365 million barrels in the ground at mckay
 114 million for 395 million barrels of non core which reflects tthe 89% of 444 million barrels

total is 201 Million - say 5% for the sale brokering
190 million divided by the 398 million shares
or .48 per share!!!!

Now I would like to see a breakdown from people who can tell us the difference in value between best etimate contingent oil in the ground and proved and probable oil in the ground.
Comments and projections please and thank you
A

[Park1]

Looks good, but so far it seems like it is costing money for the product.?   But shat should know!!..

[Eyeinvestor]

We found another piece of the puzzle today in the MD and A , top of page 14. " At any time prior to the maturity date the company may prepay the term loan......."Prior to March 31 2015, the prepayment shall be accompanied by a make whole payment . From April 1 2015...103%, From April 1 2016....102% .....From April 1 2017....101% etc........"........and this is the really important

[ShatnersRug]

Eye, As far as suitors go, who would be the most likely candidates? Outright sale? JV? I believe the latter to be most likely. Shat-

[Junit290]

Shat, is Alta still selling? 

[ShatnersRug]

Yep. And because the can also buy under the "Anonymous" identifier, I cannot say with 100% certainty as to when they will let up. Although their sell volume, along with others has tapered off significantly.

[Junit290]

That's reassuring, what a brutal few days. Wasn't expecting such a crash. Didn't stop me from topping up this morning. Byron demeanour on the conference call was very confident. Call me crazy but I telly think this is an exceptional management team and the fact the company has been in the shitter for the better part of 18 months I still see light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe not as

[Eyeinvestor]

Shat, My passionate young friend:- 1. Don't cancel the deposit on the boat yet. We are going to make you a lot of money. While I might wish that you had joined Nike and the Eye in the debentures at 33 cents, you will make money in STP before the end of Q3. 2. Remember an earlier post of mine where I listed each of the sell side analysts covering the stock...and who has credibility and who does

[nikehercules]

Excellent post Eye, At this point, the debs remain relatively undisturbed. Even at $44, they still have significant upside with less volatility in the portfolio. STP common is like that "leap of faith" water ride at Atlantis. Best of luck everyone. Next purchase - AX.UN

[Eyeinvestor]

Love the Leap of Faith........but there is a big difference. At Atlantis, the ride down is thrilling but the climb back up is exhausting and often frustrating. At Fort McMurray, the ride up is thrilling but the way down is exhausting and often frustrating.