Nice forcast for Palladium
Friday November 16, 2012 12:27 PM
BNP Paribas looks for palladium to be the strongest precious metal next year and also looks for platinum to rise from current levels but continue trading at a discount to gold. Palladium has been hurt by concerns over global economic growth, the bank says. “However, better demand prospects for the metal in a context of higher economic growth, combined with severe constraints on the supply side, means that palladium’s current market deficit will become even larger next year,” says precious-metals strategist Anne-Laure Tremblay. “This will eventually have to be reflected in a higher price, which we expect to take place more visibly in H2’13.” Platinum group metals are used in auto catalysts, and palladium will benefit from greater exposure to the improving U.S. and emerging markets, she says. These regions tend to rely more on gasoline vehicles that can use palladium rather than more-expensive platinum. The bank looks for palladium to average $780 an ounce next year, although this is down from a September call of $900. Platinum is forecast at $1,705 next year, compared to a $1,820 forecast in September. “Platinum is unlikely to recover its premium above gold until late 2014,” BNP says. “We expect palladium to outperform the rest of the precious metals complex over the next two years.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com