I'd argue that SND is in a sweet spot today with relatively low commodity prices. Met coal, copper, natural gas, are all off their highs. Further, capital is tight. All of these things are great for Sandstorm, maybe not from a cash flow perspective, but definitely from a deal making perspective.
With limited capital available, more companies will be reliant upon alternative sources of financing (i.e. SND). Not only does this increase the potential pool of eligible deals, it also means we are getting deals done with some measure of downside protection (assuming commodity prices are "low" relative to ~2 or ~4 years ago).
Commodities are cyclical - always have been, always will. If our hypothesis is indeed accurate that we are at a "low" period in the cycle (met coal and natural gas are off their highs by > 50%, iron ore is down over 60%, etc.), a recovery in pricing would likely act as a catalyst for significant apprecition in the share price.
Previously I assumed that we would cut a cheque for $15 million to SSL for our palladium stream. Doesn't seem like this is going to happen anymore. Either SND will draw a demand loan from a bank for $15 million in a years time (once we have cash flow from Donner of $15 million, likely we could obtain a bank loan of $30 - $40 million), or we'll issue shares equivalent to $15 million. That leaves $40 million in the bank, less $7 million for the NDX deal, less $7 million to TBD, less $9 million to Donner, or about $17 million in the bank.
That is enough for 1 more deal.
Anyway... I have some more interesting information, a friend called NDX and spoke with the new CEO... will post later tonight when I am home from work.
Cheers.