TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
stocktaon Nov 11, 2010 12:25pm
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Post# 17693013
Dundee target is low..here is mine
Dundee target is low..here is mineHere is my analysis based on a 2M tpy mine with some assumptions shown. I felt $150 per tonne is a conservative OPEX. I also assumed they would fund mine with 50% equity and 50% debt each pulling in $400M. Assumed a financing at $2 per share and Washington financial insitution to fund $400M in debt at 10%. I get a share price of around $10 per share US
| M&I |
| Tonnes of KCL |
| 40,000,000 |
| Opex ($ per tonne) |
| 150 |
| Mine Cost |
| $ 800,000,000 |
| Exp Mine Life (years) |
| 20 |
| Prod per year (tonnes) |
| 2,000,000 |
| Ave Price of Potash (per tonne) |
| $ 500 |
| Annual Cash flow (including debt repayment of $50M per year on total debt of $400M at 10%) |
| $ 650,000,000 |
| NPV (20 years) |
| 3,268,565,458 |
| Discount Rate |
| 15% |
| Current Shares O/S |
| 110,000,000 |
| Additional Dilution (assuming equity financing done at $2 per share for half of mine cap cost) |
| 200,000,000 |
| Future Total Shares O/S |
| 310,000,000 |
| Share Price |
| $ 10.54 |