TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
dusofton Jul 30, 2013 8:31pm
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Post# 21640265
Allana SP will likely rebound here is why...
Allana SP will likely rebound here is why...1) It is unlikely Uralkali will destroy the Potash price. { Can Saudi Arabia decide to jump out of OPEC to maximize their production to lower Oil prices ?}
2) Move is certainly targeting high cost producer and putting a stop on juniors to be snapped up cheaply by big cartel companies... consolidation will be the right word. Uralkali intent was to take control of Belaruskali and that is what Russians are targeting.
3) On it's own merit Allana is one of the lowest cost producer of potash from ground and FOB
4) Project is to be debt funded by constorium of EXIM banks sponsored by soverigncountries
5) Potash exports for Ethopia is source of revenue and very critical for African agriculture
6) Allana's mining licence is due to be given any time.... the move will push Ethopian government to move faster on process.
7) Mining license will provide creditable leverage for negotiating takeovers, debt and offtake discussions.
8) Story has some relation and pain linked to strength of US dollar and move on part of certain nations to trade in alternate currencies (Yaun) or commodities in short move away from US dollar such that US dollar drops and commodities soar.
I truely hope Uralkali pips the other high costs producers/juniors out of market. Allana's is decoupled from events except for market potash price which again in case of Allana is distant 2015 -2016 when first sales are made in Potash.