From Latest ArticleAny comments Ferti?
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Adding to over-supply?
But adding to a potash surplus comes with considerable risk.
Global potash production capacity currently exceeds demand by 15 million tonnes, or 27 percent, and further build-out in the next few years may limit any price rebound, according to a March 5 report by TD Economics senior economist Sonya Gulati.
Germany's K+S AG and Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd already have new Canadian mines in the works, although low prices have caused BHP to hold off on final approval.
The spot Vancouver, British Columbia price was $300 per tonne in January, the lowest since 2008 and well below the long-term potash price of $430 assumed by Allana in its feasibility study, although prices have since risen in some markets.
It's also no sure bet when Africa's fast growth will translate into fertilizer demand.
"Africa will one day be a very important market. The issue is people have been saying that for 20 years," said Mosaic Chief Financial Officer Larry Stranghoener, on Wednesday, adding that his company has no plans to significantly invest there.