3$ in the 2nd qtr 2017 would make sense based on the previous calculation I did (see below), the delay in the construction of the mine and the corrected projection of the price of potash.

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Here a repost of the estimation I did a few months ago of the SP once we will hit production (based on the FS study). There is a lot of upside at the current SP.

Here how I calculated the share price (all the parameters come from the FS and it is based on 1 MTPY and no railway):

First, some theory about earnings per share (EPS):
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Definition of 'Earnings Per Share - EPS'
The portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Earnings per share serves as an indicator of a company's profitability.

Calculated as:
EPS = (net income – preferred dividends) / weighted average number of common shares

When calculating, it is more accurate to use a weighted average number of shares outstanding over the reporting term, because the number of shares outstanding can change over time. However, data sources sometimes simplify the calculation by using the number of shares outstanding at the end of the period.

Diluted EPS expands on basic EPS by including the shares of convertibles or warrants outstanding in the outstanding shares number.
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From the equation above:
1- Net income is also known as “Profit After Tax”. Profit After Tax is the concept used in the FS.
2- Although we do not have a dividend, the FS conceptualized the “Government Free-Carried Interest” (aka the 5% royalty) as a dividends (p.190 of the FS))
3- Average outstanding shares. (I use 4 different scenarios, ranging from 300 m shares to 450 m shares). I add 3 million shares every year for compensation (new options)

Data below are taken from the FS (p. 222 of the PDF)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Profit After Tax 61,310,600 185,104,960 283,890,250 293,149,580 301,127,333 308,447,899
Government Free-Carried Interest 3,065,530 9,255,248 14,194,512 14,657,479 15,056,367 15,422,395
Price of potash 456 465 475 484 494 504

Profit After Tax (net income) minus Government Free-Carried Interest (dividend)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
58,245,070 175,849,712 269,695,738 278,492,101 286,070,966 293,025,504

Number of shares (Different scenarios) (3 million options add every year)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
# shares (scenario #1) 300,000,000 303,000,000 306,000,000 309,000,000 312,000,000 315,000,000
# shares (scenario #2) 350,000,000 353,000,000 356,000,000 359,000,000 362,000,000 365,000,000
# shares (scenario #3) 400,000,000 403,000,000 406,000,000 409,000,000 412,000,000 415,000,000
# shares (scenario #4) 450,000,000 453,000,000 456,000,000 459,000,000 462,000,000 465,000,000

Earnings per shares according to the different scenarios =
Profit After Tax (net income) minus Government Free-Carried Interest (dividend) / number of shares
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Earning per share (scenario #1) 0.19 0.58 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93
Earning per share (scenario #2) 0.17 0.50 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.80
Earning per share (scenario #3) 0.15 0.44 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.71
Earning per share (scenario #4) 0.13 0.39 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63

Now, if we apply the average P/E ratio in the industry (14.08) (see below for calculation (P/E ratio from March 25, 2013))
P/E ratio
AGU 10.3
POT 16.5
ICL 13.5
IPI 16.3
MOS 13.8
Average 14.08

We get the following share prices (estimates may vary due to rounding):

Share prices according to the different scenarios =
Earnings per shares * P/E ratio
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Share price (scenario #1 = 300 m shares) 2.73 8.17 12.41 12.69 12.91 13.10
Share price (scenario #2 = 350 m shares) 2.34 7.01 10.67 10.92 11.13 11.30
Share price (scenario #3 = 400 m shares) 2.05 6.14 9.35 9.59 9.78 9.94
Share price (scenario #4 = 450 m shares) 1.82 5.47 8.33 8.54 8.72 8.87