TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
stocktaon Nov 11, 2010 12:25pm
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Post# 17693013
Dundee target is low..here is mine
Dundee target is low..here is mineHere is my analysis based on a 2M tpy mine with some assumptions shown. I felt $150 per tonne is a conservative OPEX. I also assumed they would fund mine with 50% equity and 50% debt each pulling in $400M. Assumed a financing at $2 per share and Washington financial insitution to fund $400M in debt at 10%. I get a share price of around $10 per share US
M&I |
Tonnes of KCL |
40,000,000 |
Opex ($ per tonne) |
150 |
Mine Cost |
$ 800,000,000 |
Exp Mine Life (years) |
20 |
Prod per year (tonnes) |
2,000,000 |
Ave Price of Potash (per tonne) |
$ 500 |
Annual Cash flow (including debt repayment of $50M per year on total debt of $400M at 10%) |
$ 650,000,000 |
NPV (20 years) |
3,268,565,458 |
Discount Rate |
15% |
Current Shares O/S |
110,000,000 |
Additional Dilution (assuming equity financing done at $2 per share for half of mine cap cost) |
200,000,000 |
Future Total Shares O/S |
310,000,000 |
Share Price |
$ 10.54 |