First Tidal Acquisition Corp T.AAA

RE:Ferti

[Fertiman]

Sdome.... Thanks for your comments and I understand where you are coming from....I won't get into too much detail as it's the weekend and I have a number things to do today before I'm off for a couple of weeks traveling....

regarding your comment that you don't believe demand will be outside Africa, consider all the offtakes LOi's and money that has already flowed into potash juniors..... Ask why is that....

the he answer really stems around not just the cartel but also the distribution Networks.... You see it's all about control of the commodity and also mitigating risk....   When potash jumped to record highs the times were great for everyone.... Especially if you had several thousand tons in inventory while potash was climbing..... The down side of this was when potash came down.... Companies such holding inventory saw their inventory devalued.... Many companies lost their shirts when prices came down....  So what's the answer.....

secure your own supply..... Look at the offtakes and who is involved.... All these companies are new to potash and are trying to break free from the current cartel and distribution channels. This is what's driving the greenfields.... Everyone pretty much knows that one of the main reasons the potash price has dropped is the greenfields from BHP, Eurochem, and the rest of the greenfields are trying to raise capital and get into production.... Other factors such as you mentioned is the cost of potash as a nutrient, but don't let that fool you as potash makes money.... The development and access to capital by the poor farmers is another issue and is being addressed by aid groups.

you are correct that Allana's 33% IRR may be in jeopardy, but you also need to think of demand 2-3 years from now.  Personally I believe we could see a 25% range initially but this is just an estimate as I feel short term pricing will hovering the $350-$400 usd/mt range...  After the nonviable greenfields drop off I believe pricing will creep up more slowly than what we saw in the past.

viable greenfields such as Allana will make it to production or be targeted for purchase in order to control the resource.  As you know Allana has an in itial plan for 1 mmt annually, but the water resource from nova has provided the opportunity from 2-3 mmt...and at a darn good OPEX.... This may catch the attention of the big boys.... 

As as for the risks.... We all know it's Africa and we all know the issues of the region..... I leave the risk comments to our friend Afaratrisk (Woundedman), MyLiar, and in a differnt sense Gaggersez (depending in his trade situation - the famouse sentiment comments).....

we we have some funny things going on here with the trading as it would not surprise me certain groups want companies such as Allana and Karnalyte to stay low,.... While other with much higher CAPEX and OPEX's remain stable..... Interesting.......

again the DD posted here is my thoughts regarding the market and what may transpire.... I encourage everyone here to do their own...


anyway way as mentioned I have plenty to do today and this comment is much longer than I wanted, but I wanted to get my point across....

have a a great weekend and wear a RED POPPY.....