RE:RE:RE:News!!!Hey silverT,
This is just my interpretation, so take it with a grain of salt, as I have no insider information. AAB moved on LIX sales news, I think that part of it was fairly obvious. I believe this was in the hope or belief that a special dividend or buyback would be done with the proceeds. My feeling (and hope) would be that AAB sold at least the 3 million shares of LIX that they could have thus far. Rather than do the buyback or special dividend, it appears they've utilized those proceeds on additional PP's in Trigon and Fura.
Trigon has been a drag and complete waste of capital so far, though they have reported some very positive developments since Stephan Theron took over active management of the company. Fura, on the other hand, has been a rockstar. What do those (and likely any additional investments they've made) stocks have in common, irrespecitve of their share price performance? They're smaller, illiquid holdings that won't be sold anytime soon. This is disappointing the same investors that bought up the stock earlier in the hopes of a capital return initiative. While that could still happen with the balance of the LIX shares they're unable to sell, that remains to be seen.
So while you're right AAB's other holdings are doing well, they're still speculative in nature. Though they might add to NAV in the quarter, they won't be sold for dividends and/or buybacks. While I disagree on the basis of future prospects for the company, I'm of the opinion any LIX share sales invested into other holdings, regardless of their performance, will be viewed as a negative for the market in the short-term.
I'm optimistic we get a buyback with at least a portion of the funds, as it would result in a higher share price and take out the wall of resistance around $0.19-0.20. The LIX buyout being finalized good be a good catalyst for a move higher, please read my other posts for my thoughts on that one. Personally, I'm very enthusiastic with AAB's performance over the last two years. However, Mr. Bharti needs to do much, much better with IR. Moreover, I don't think spending $1-1.5 million to max out the buyback is too much to ask as a shareholder. Dividend would be nice, but AAB is far too small for that to make a material impact or draw in income investors. Furthermore, a buyback at these drastic differences between NAV and SP would ultimately result in more equity for all remaining shareholders.