Top Draft Pick - Why No Dividend Discussion?
The three year growh plan in the website Investor Presentation on their site today (which appears to use dated Oct 23, 2018 assumptions for FX and strip prices et al) shows a CAPEX spend of $690 Million from 2019-2021. That results in flat gas production of 245 mmcfd average over the three years (ie. offsets declines) but results in a 3.4X growth in liquids from ~3000 boepd (avg. 2019) to 11,370 (avg. 2021).
In 2019 AAV forecasts to spend about $225 MM ($45 Million more than 2019 "Funds from Ops") with about 50% of total CAPEX to be spent at Glacier. Glacier has liquids content in mid-Montney of 25-80 bbls mmcf while Pipestone area to the SE has liquids of 225-300 bbls mmcf. Pipestone area currently lacks infrastructure (ie. Tidewater and Keyera new builds 2019-2021) and lots of new product in the area from BBI/Pipestone et al.
Although this is a great organic story and team, this seems like a three year wait. Although they are adept at hedging, a lot of gas is still seeking a home out of AB.
If they hold the basic share count at 186MM (which is likely unless the SP increases significantly and they want to acquire someone, which is unlikely) they could easily defer $56MM (8%) of the planned $690MM CAPEX over the three years and pay a dividend of $0.10 CDN per share which at current SP of ~$2.25 is a 4.4% yield).
That would be another reason to own more of this one.