Air Canada T.AC

RBC's forecast for AC stock

[Rouge10]

RBC takes the most conservative approach towards AC. Let’s check below RBC EBITDA forecast for 2023 and 2024 as described
 
Q/Year       RBC Est (30-90 days ahead of results) MM      Actual MM                 Diff

2022Q4                                   $353                                        $389                            $36

2023Q1                                   $290                                        $411                            $121
2023Q2                                   $939                                        $1,220                         $281
2023Q3                                   $1,530                                     $1,830                         $300
2023Q4                                   $524                                      ~$750 (est)                    $226

2023                                       $3,283                                 ~$4,2XX (est)                 $1,291

RBC’s EBITDA forecast for year 2023 made in Feb ’23 was $2.8B and first 3Qs EBITDA is already at $3.5B.
 
Todays’ forecast for 2024 is

2024                                       $3,209                                    ~$4,500 (est)                 $1,291
 
Keep in mind 2024 capacity could be approx. 10% higher than 2023; most of this will be seen in summer months. Q1 results will beat RBC Q1 24 forecast and Q1 23 actuals. As explained in earlier post the 2024 demand/capacity levels are way below they should be (~115% of 2019) with annual regular increases from 2019 -2024. At 100%, we will still be below, allowing yields/margins to be strong. AC is managing capacity closely in order to maintain margins.
 
RBC is using EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.5 for forecasting sp but at a lot lower EBITDA. If we use actual 2023 EBITDA (~$4.2B or $4.0 using RBC Q4 ’23 estimates) at ratio of 3.5, sp calculation should be in the range of $30 in coming months and $40 at end of 2024.

[Rob8043]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Rouge10]

********************** Correction: highlighted in yellow color.  *************************   RBC takes the most conservative approach towards AC. Let’s check below RBC EBITDA forecast for 2023 and 2024 as described Q/Year   RBC Est (30-90 days ahead of results) MM  Actual MM       Diff 2022Q4             

[alive9well]

On to investor USEFUL info, not the troll dribble. https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ac/air-canada?postid=35852269  https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ac/air-canada?postid=35852269 https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ac/air-canada?postid=35852269