Post by
marcrobert on Jan 31, 2024 12:30pm
Elephant is the cabin? How do we think about RBC??
Consensus target is 29 and change, BMO 32 etc. RBC just raised from 17 to 18!!! How can this be, it makes no sense, 2024 3.2 B vs consensus 3.75B - you can drive a oil sands dump truck through that gap... I guess we'll find out more how geopolitics is affecting bookings, even as delta ceo said last week that they see international outperforming this year beyond 2019 levels, which is AC bread and butter.
I don't know RBC/Spracklin track record - any comments (besides "he's a complete fool doesn't understand anything").
Market certainly isn't pricing in any upside here, seems to be siding with spracklin at this point. We need a major surprise in earnings release and increased guidance to get shorties to cover, but my fear is when the correction comes, stocks like airlines will get slammed full on, so lower prices ahead.
“We are increasing our Q4/23 estimate to $524-million (from $439-million) vs consensus of $539-million, strictly on the benefit from lower fuel prices,” he wrote. “For 2024, we previously anticipated a return to 2019 capacity levels by 2024. However, given the robust capacity ramp-up over the last two years, OEM delays, and MRO slowdowns, we reduce our capacity assumption for AC to a decline of 3 per cent vs. 2019 (or up 10 per cent year-over-year). Our 2024 estimate of $3.209-billion remains below consensus of $3.765-billion and guidance of $3.5-billion to $4-billion as we see multiple headwinds facing the airline industry, including the sustainability of higher fares, increased new entrants, and higher labour costs.”
Comment by
Rob8043 on Jan 31, 2024 9:07pm
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Comment by
JuIieRichards on Jan 31, 2024 10:58pm
TD won the RFP contest some years back for Aeroplan with some biz for CIBC and AMEX. RBC lost. But don't think this is the reason. Analysts often try to set themselves apart to create a bit more buzz, good or bad. Previous to covid the Raymond James guy tried that approach. He did get punted and Savanthi Syth took over all the Airlines. What will Walter's best before date be?