Post by
Rouge10 on Feb 16, 2024 1:15pm
2023 results: A quick analysis
Quick analysis how the results compared to estimates
Estimates (from previous post) Actuals
Revenue: $22.0B $21.8B
EBITDA: $4.2B $3.98B
Cash flow from ops: $4.3B $4.32B
Free cash flow: $2.7B ($7.5/share) $2.76B
EPS: ~$6.0 (Q4: ~$1.0) $5.96 (Q4: ~0.4)
Leverage ratio: 1.1 1.1
Net debt $4.6B (diff post) $4.6B
Even though yield is lower than I had expected but load factor was higher than what I had assumed. Filling the seats with slightly cheaper seats. There is a science in maximizing total profit by selling more if yields are lower. Both work without adding aircraft capacity.
Most metrics came close as expected. EBITDA came slightly lower but CFO and FCF are higher than I had calculated. To me FCF is most important metric. Keep in mind that Q4 is the weakest Q for the airline always and yields usually are lower. In today’s call management was confident of demand volume and yields being similar to 2023. Q1 is half done. They won’t make such a statement if they are not confident of at least near term (Q1 and Q2) trends. Net debt will drop fast in coming months and so will Leverage Ratio. Management was very confident about consistent FCF even through the 2025-2027 high capex years.
2024 is going strong and will be able to come on top end of their guidance. AC won’t be able to come out very strong till pilot negotiations are going on.
I will be back with Q1 and 2024 numbers after reviewing data from today’s call.
Comment by
Rob8043 on Feb 16, 2024 3:48pm
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