RE:Big deal or no deal!!Exactly my thoughts. Good post and very logical. I started a large position in Aurora approximately a week ago for this same reason. Ive been 100% all in with Canopy the past 3 years and have an average well under $2 a share. Canopy no doubt will be the greatest investment of our lifetime, but make no mkistake about it, Aurora will be a solid company and will more then likely hang on to being the 2nd biggest company in the world.
However, without a partner, shareholder value will continue to be held back because of the need to continue to go to the markets to raise cash. Having a partner, gives Aurora the cash they need to continue to build a global empire in the same manner Canopy is doing. Yes, taking on a large partnership will add 20-40% more shares to the float, however these shares will not be dumped on the open market and continue to hold ACB down. Aurora will need billions and billions of dollars to continue to grow globally, and the only thing holding them back is a large conglomorate to take a stake. They have everything and more a partner would be looking for including having their primary focus on the Global Medical market, with many clinical trials underway with a few phase 2 trials to be completed sometime mid year.
Auroras`time in the sun will come, its a matter of when. If and when that partnership comes, Aurora has everything they need to be a top global dynasty right beside Canopy.
Machoman wrote:
I'm a medium size investor and I have 25% of my investments in pot stocks. There are 2 things that will happen this week: Either the hype and the news are all just a hype that is pumped up and we'll go back to 8.75-9.10 level or if there is the truth to these rumors this stock will go up to $10.5-11 in the next couple of days. I think the stock will pop in the first 30 minutes of trading cause all the little guys will want to get on the action and join in and than it will go back down to the high $9 level. If the stock starts climbing after a brief deflation I'm going all in. Most likely more institutions are buying into this stock before the big news. IF no news happens in the first 2 days of trading I think we'll be back to high 8 to low 9$ mark. Buy before Feb 11....Friday morning would be a greal buy spot. Even though most of us know we are getting somewhere between 50-55 mil in revenue as long as ACB reports in this range we might see a bump in stock price during the release date.
Now I address the second question that is on some people mind. Why get a $350 mil loan if there is a big investment coming? Well again I can say there are 2 possibilities. Either there is no big investment coming and they need this cash to finance the day to day operations/expansions till they start turning profit in second or third quater or they are working on another big aquisition and they need to put some big deposit down to fund it before they get their cash from the big parner. Remember all the big pot companies are fighting to get a bigger market share and exposure to US and the rest of the world so even a couple of weeks might make a difference between getting a deal done or not.
I think the upside is much bigger than the dowside, so just for that I think I might go all balls out starting Monday if the right stock price moves happen.
Downside: Low $8...(don't think we'll ever see a $7 for ACB)....that is 20% dowside.
Upside: Sky is the limit and if there is no news early this week I think I'll be able to take my money out by next Monday when the earnings report happens. Sell the news.