RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Alaris News It's messy to jointly analyze the dilution and the deployment as if they were part of the same event; they are distinct transactions.
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mickeymouse wrote: Yes there are now 13.6% more shares outstanding - but you must also take into consideration that with that higher share count comes more cash flow and lower debt - to really calculate whether the deal is accretive or dilutive you need to take many factors into account which the brokerage houses are very aware of when they price these offerings - and even though it is trading below the $16 of the new offering it is a bought deal and when I inquired with the brokers I deal with the offerings were already fully subscribed.
On another note in the third quarter financials there was a calculation where a breakdown of the payout ratio was estimated based on "other considerations after taxes and interest"
The payout ratio at the time of the 3rd quarter results was shown to be 74% - dropping to 63% with full distibutions from PFGP - right now they are paying 33% of the normal distibution and it appears they will be reinstating the full distribution in July.
More importantly it shows 60% as the payout ratio (or a 3% lower ratio) with every additonal $50 million invested at their normal 14% ROI - since that time they have invested $55 million in GWM - a $20 million follow up investment in BCC - $74 million in Edgewater and FNC - and then two days ago a further $66 million in B&S.
So the payout ratio should be dropping from that 74% based on their capital deployments and the partial distributions from PFGP even with the new shares factored in - that does also not include any positive resets in January - based on conversations with Curtis over the last few years and from Steve's comments in the last few conference calls it is reasonable to expect a distribution bump either this quarter or next quarter while they still maintain a conservative payout ratio - that in turn should have a positive impact on the share price.