NYSEAM:AEF - Post by User
Post by
gharrison1on Mar 09, 2018 10:35am
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Post# 27690800
debt-to-leverage
debt-to-leverageSomething doesn't quite add up
They say 2017 debt-to-EBITDA will be around 5.15x (a) not including the transaction
On Q3/17 financials, total debt including aircraft loans was $55.6 + $793.8 + $15.4 (finance fees) = $864.8mm (b)
Excluding aircraft loans of $632.6mm is $232.2mm (c)
In Q3/17 YTD EBITDA is $88mm (acquisition closed jan 3, 2017) -- if we annualize this for simplicity sake is $117mm (d)
5.15*117mm (a*d) is $603mm... this implied debt figure doesn't match b or c. My guess is aircraft loans are tied to the underlying assets and non recourse so can be excluded.
if we take $232.2 / 5.15 => we get EBITDA of $45.1mm (implying 2017 figure)
Q2 debt excluding aircraft loans was $117.2MM, so between Q2 and Q3, this debt figure grew $115MM. Assuming they added another $100MM in debt between Q3 and Q4, total debt would rise to $332MM (e)
332 / 5.15 = $64mm implying 2017 EBITDA was $64mm
Either case, this implies Q4 EBITDA was potentially quite negative...
It doesn't make much sense to me, financial are pretty opaque so I could be wrong. Would be great if someone can correct my analysis if wrong.