RE:Just wondering......TonyGrow wrote: Hey guys, the stock price has done really well recently coming back from its low of $1.40. I am long aimia here, but I was wondering what are the chances that they find a new partner? I feel like a lot of speculation about "aimia finding a new partner" is happening and therefore making the stock's price higher and higher. My fear here is that a "bubble" is being created arround aimia and if they dont release an update about that partnership soon, a fear of aimia not being able to substain without AirCanada might come back among investor and make to stock price plundge back to $1.50. I would like to have your thoughts on that?
1. A new partner is not necessary for Aimia's future. They can just transition to a new program that does not have a major redemption partner and survive. Think Airmile America thye do not have a major partner and they are doing well. Just buy tickets at bulk price. Expedia, is also another bulk purchaser for example.
2. Not being tied to AC could be a good thing. Search what ppl are saying about Aeroplan and alot of members are complaining about the cost of redemption. These cost of redemptions are carrier based. If you redeem for Swiss, Luftansa, Brussels, United you dont pay these crazy fees. It could be a positive change for the program.
3.Aeroplan can transition into anything really. From Cryopto currency to positioning itself as a reward program for SMBs, partnering up with Amazon, Expedia. There are alot of possibilities. It is about being able to transition that the risk lives.
4.They have AeroMexicos 49% to back them up. AeroMexico could be the door to joingin Skyteam. With Skyteam and even a small domestic partnership aeroplan would be in a great position.
5.They could be bought out. There is a value associated to the 5M members and the cash in hand. They could very well be bought out by AC, WestJet, Loyalty One. At these levels i am sure they are all looking at it.
This is why IMO the stock is a great value. There is a risk with it... there is no doubt about it. But the risk is about them being able to re-invent themselves. It's a hard enviroment. Their workforce needs to be on board, and they have to may have to start thinking less travel oriented an more reward oriented but they have 2 year to get there. Alot can happen in 2 years... I believe they can do it. They are in a great position to be successful.